Nearly 20 years after Lovie fired Ron Rivera, 'trust me' has a different ring to it at Halas Hall

The Bears were 5-5 in games in which they allowed 23 or more points in 2025 — arguably the most tangible evidence of "The Ben Johnson Effect." Prior to Johnson's arrival, the Bears were 0-25 when allowing 23 or more points over the previous three seasons, and 6-82 since 2014. So they nearly won as many games when allowing 23 or more points in Johnson's first season as they had in the previous 10 seasons.

The Bears' 47-42 victory over the Bengals in Week 9 was the high end of that trend. It marked the first time in franchise history the Bears had won a game despite allowing 42 or more points. It was a testament to the Bears' revitalized offense under Johnson, but also the Bengals' horrid defense. The Bears scored the winning touchdown when Bengals safeties Jordan Battle and Geno Stone egregious (and comically) missed a tackle on Bears tight end Colston Loveland — turning a 23-yard completion into a 58-yard touchdown that gave the Bears the 47-42 lead with 17 seconds left in the fourth quarter.

That victory over the Bengals looms more significant after the Bears' 2026 draft in which they spent more draft capital to fortify their ninth-ranked scoring offense rather than address some key needs for their 23rd-ranked scoring defense. After an invigorating 2025 season under Johnson, the Bears already are at a crossroads with an offense that appears headed toward sustaining top-10 status — will they follow the path of Kyle Shanahan's 49ers (and Sean McVay's Rams to a lesser extent) and build a solid, if not top-10, defense? Or will they end up like the Bengals, who have a top-10 offense when Joe Burrow is healthy, but have been in the bottom half of the league on defense in five of Burrow's six seasons?

zBears fans were upset and media critical of the Bears taking three offensive players on Day 2 of the NFL draft. But Ben Johnson has a track record of productive players. This is a list of every player who has been taken in rounds 1-3 of the NFL draft that have played in his offense. Not too many misses on this list.

Bears fans and media are understandably dubious about Bears general manager Ryan Poles counting on growth from within rather than reach (or trade up) to fill those defensive needs — particularly improvement from defensive ends Dayo Odeyingbo and Austin Booker and defensive tackle/end Shemar Turner. Understandably, because that tack almost never works, except when Vic Fangio was here.

But nearly 20 years after Lovie Smith insisted he knew what he was doing when he fired Ron Rivera as defensive coordinator after the 2006 season, "trust me" rings a little less hollow at Halas Hall these days. I'm not a big fan of concocting best-case scenarios where everything works out at Halas Hall (like expecting Kevin White to finally stay healthy or Nate Davis to finally get it). But Johnson, Caleb Williams and the improving offense give the Bears' a higher floor they haven't had in recent memory and add a measure of plausibility to scenarios that previously were unwarranted.

Odeyingbo wasn't very productive in eight games before suffering a ruptured Achilles last season. And Turner wasn't very productive in five games before suffering a season-ending torn ACL. But in both cases, the sample size is too small to define them. Both are former second-round draft picks (Odeyingbo 54th overall in 2021; Turner 62nd overall last year). It remains to be seen how quickly both of them will be ready to go in 2026. But would second-round rookies be any better prospects? Maybe. But maybe not. It's a fair point in Poles' favor.

Wishcasting has been the ruin of many a Bears general manager and coach, but if Johnson, Williams and the offense takes the expected jump in 2026, the Bears will have an offense that gives a developing (or subpar) defense margin for error most Bears defenses (and defenders) have not had. That was pie-in-the-sky theory even in the Cutler era. It resonates a little more with the potential of this offense. "The Ben Johnson Effect" will take some getting used to, but it turns doubt into hope on defense and hope into expectation on offense.

The irony is that the improvement on offense is likely to come from within rather than the draft. A year ago, Loveland (1-10), Luther Burden (2-39) and Ozzy Trapilo (2-56) were filling big holes. Center Logan Jones (2-57) might not even start ahead of veteran Garrett Bradbury. Tight end Sam Roush (3-69) is a No. 3 tight end who might steal snaps from Cole Kmet, but not Loveland. And Zavion Thomas in a Ben Johnson offense is intriguing as a Tyreek Hill-type of speedster (4.28 in the 40, even faster than Hill's 4.29 at his pro day in 2016). But even the Bears are slow playing that, and seemingly have Thomas pegged as a returner in 2026.

It remains to be seen if the Bears had the kind of roster luxury to decline filling defensive needs for a future starting center, a third tight end and a kick returner. Usually when the Bears think they know something we don't, they actually don't. But Ben Johnson gives Halas Hall something it hasn't had since they fired Mike Ditka — the benefit of the doubt.

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