Moises Ballesteros a victim of circumstance in lefty vs. lefties debate

The debate over whether Cubs red-hot left-handed hitting rookie Moises Ballesteros should bat against left-handed pitchers is being framed as nit-picking with the Cubs' offense fueling their four-game winning streak. Even after being limited to five hits in a 4-2 victory over the Mets on Saturday at Wrigley Field, the Cubs are hitting .338 with 15 extra-base hits and eight home runs in the four-game winning streak after Carson Kelly and Ian Happ homered Saturday.

Kelly's three-run home run as a pinch-hitter for Ballesteros against former Cubs left-hander Brooks Raley in the bottom of the sixth-inning broke a 1-1 tie and seemed to give the proverbial finger to critics advocating for Craig Counsell to stop platooning a hitter on roll. "Think I could hear Counsell laughing from up in the pressbox," ESPN insider Jesse Rogers tweeted — with obvious glee — at the time. He later added, "do people have to complain about everything."

The Kelly home run made Counsell look like a genius, but critics are not complaining just to complain. The Ballesteros debate is a legitimate one, and both sides have a point. With the Cubs a contender, Counsell is right to play to win every game and platooning Ballesteros — who provides little on defense or on the bases. But like most good, young hitters, the only way Ballesteros — who is hitting .381 with three home runs and 10 RBIs and a 1.032 OPS in 42 at-bats over 17 games this season — is going to learn to hit left-handers is by facing them.

But two-tool players on contending teams like Ballesteros and Kyle Schwarber face an uphill battle for at-bats against lefties in their developmental stage. Anthony Rizzo, an outstanding defensive player on bad teams when he came up with the Cubs in 2012-13 — the Brooks Raley era — had plenty of opportunities against lefties.

Rizzo, in fact, had 356 plate appearances against lefties in his first three seasons in the big leagues (including 2011 with the Padres), and it paid off. Rizzo hit .207 with a .617 OPS vs. left-handers in those first three seasons, but .278 with an .878 OPS vs. left-handers in the next four seasons (2014-2017), when the Cubs made the playoffs three times and won the World Series in 2016.

Schwarber, a catcher-turned-outfielder on a contending team when he arrived in 2015, was in the same bind as Ballesteros. Schwarber had 260 plate appearances vs. left-handed pitchers (out of 1,274 total PAs) in his first three full seasons with the Cubs (2015-18) and like many young left-handed hitters, didn't have much to show for it: a .182 batting average, .300 on-base percentage and .308 slugging percentage for a .608 OPS.

But like a lot of good young left-handed hitters, the more he saw left-handed pitching the better he got at it. In four seasons with the Phillies, Schwarber had 1,006 plate appearances against left-handers — more than double what he had in five full seasons with the Cubs (435).

And the experience is paying off. In his first nine seasons in the big leagues, Schwarber hit .204/.319/.377.695 vs. left-handers. In the last two seasons, he's jumped to .275/.385/.547/.933. Schwarber, in fact, has hit 60 home runs vs. lefties in the last four seasons. He hit 18 in his first eight seasons.

The Cubs will start rejuvenated left-hander Matthew Boyd against the Phillies on Monday — another opportunity for ex-Cub Kyle Schwarber to do what he does best: hit left-handed pitching.

Believe it or not, Schwarber not only hits left-handed pitching these days, but hits for average (.278) and power (11 home runs in 90 at-bats). In fact, he's statistically better vs. left-handers (..278/.404/.689/1.093) than vs. right-handers (.236/.362/.466/.828). He has more homers in 90 at-bats vs. lefties (11) than he does in 148 at-bats against righties (nine).

That's a huge career up-tick for a player who was platooned more often than not early in his career with the contending Cubs. Schwarber had 260 plate appearances vs. left-handers (out of 1,274 total PAs) in his first three full seasons with the Cubs (2015-18) and like many young left-handed hitters, didn't have much to show for it: a .182 batting average, .300 on-base percentage and .308 slugging percentage for a .608 OPS.

But like a lot of good young left-handed hitters, the more he saw left-handed pitching the better he got at it. In four seasons with the Phillies, Schwarber has 839 plate appearances against left-handers — nearly double what he had in five full seasons with the Cubs (435).

And the experience is paying off. In his first nine seasons in the big leagues, Schwarber hit .204/.319/.377.695 vs. left-handers. In the last two seasons, he's jumped to .293/.406/.550/.956. Schwarber, in fact, has hit 48 home runs vs. lefties in the last four seasons. He hit 18 in his first eight seasons.

"I think it's just able to get at-bats and be able to see and you go from there," Schwarber told me in 2019 when he first started to hit lefties. "Just feeling comfortable at the plate and you go from there. The more repetition, the better you recognize pitches and things like that. That's kind of the thought process — to be able to see more, the more you train your eyes and your body."

It's that simple for most good, young left-handed hitters. But opportunity is circumstantial. Pete Crow-Armstrong provides elite defense and plus base-running, so he doesn't get platooned on a contending Cubs team, even though he's hit poorly against lefties since he came up to the big leagues. Crow-Armstrong has 320 plate-appearances against lefties in 313 career big-league games and is hitting .208/.236/.345/.580. Crow-Armstrong still has a long way to go to establish himself against all big-league pitching, but getting consistent at-bats vs. left-handers is a big part of that development.

Ballesteros doesn't figure to get that opportunity, and you can't blame Counsell for not giving it to him. Even with a solid lineup from top to bottom, he doesn't have the luxury of letting Ballesteros develop at the plate without providing defense or base-running that helps the Cubs win. But the call for Ballesteros to get that opportunity is not nit-picking or complaining just to complain. You only have to look back at Kyle Schwarber and Anthony Rizzo to see the benefits of experience.

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