Kyle Tucker a keeper, but long-term deal not as easy as it looks

The Cubs painted themselves into a corner from the moment they acquired Kyle Tucker from the Astros without signing him to a long-term contract. Trading 2024 first-round draft pick Cam Smith, relief pitcher Hayden Wesneski and third baseman Isaac Paredes for a 28-year-old one-year rental does not seem like good business. If the Cubs were expecting a relative bargain on a long-term deal, signing Tucker before the 2024 season was likely the only way they were going to get one. 

But both sides agreed to let the season play out and already it’s putting the Cubs on the spot. Tucker is off to a hot start, almost taunting the Cubs front office by being as good as advertised almost from the start. With two more hits in a 7-0 victory over the Rangers at Wrigley Field on Monday, Tucker is hitting .327 with five home runs and 16 RBIs in 13 games. 

He’s one of 17 players in Cubs history with 16 or more RBIs in the first 13 games of a season, but the only one to do that in his first year with the Cubs. And with the news breaking Monday that Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. had agreed to a 14-year, $500 million contract with the Blue Jays, it only increased the heat on the Cubs to make sure they keep Tucker in Chicago.

Since signing Anthony Rizzo to a seven-year, $41 million deal in 2013, the Cubs have struggled to get the hang of buying low. That’s not a problem for big-market teams that act like big-market teams and aren’t afraid to over-pay for quality. But the Cubs are inherently skittish about splurging. 

And while they get a good amount of well-deserved heat for that, in one respect you can’t blame them. Jed Hoyer & Co. aren’t conditioned to expect staying power from 28-year-olds. Of the impressive string of immediate-impact players the Cubs have brought up from the farm system since Starlin Castro in 2010 — Anthony Rizzo, Jorge Soler, Javy Baez, Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, Albert Almora and Willson Contreras — only 

Schwarber has had significant post-30 production, and all of it with the Phillies. 

Schwarber, who had an .816 OPS in six years with the Cubs (with seasons of 30, 26 and 38 homers), has an .839 OPS since starting his 30-year-old season. Everyone else is modest-at-best, at least by OPS standards: Contreras (.814), Soler (.790), Rizzo (.747), Castro (.715), Bryant (.704) and. Baez (.571). Almora last played in the big leagues in 2022 at 28.

Tucker, of course, did not come up through the Cubs’ farm system. But how predictable is his staying power? Saying a player is “only 28” is a slippery slope in baseball. It presumes he has the meat of his prime in front of him. But the reality is that it’s hit-and-miss. At the same age, Bryant’s career OPS was .901 entering the 2020 season. It was .889 after that season. It’s .704 since then. 

Tucker’s .877 OPS, in fact, ranks with Bryant, Andrew McCutchen (.890), Freddie Freeman (.875), Mookie Betts (.890) and Christian Yelich (.870) through their age-28 season. How do you know that he’ll have the staying power of Betts (a .935 OPS since his age-28 season) or Freeman (.932) and not Bryant (.704) or McCutchen (.777)?

That’s the $500 million (or more) question for Jed Hoyer. And if he knew the answer, signing Kyle Tucker to a long-term contract would have been part-and-parcel of the deal. This looks like a no-brainer today, but — with rare exception — it’s never as easy as it looks.