Do Ravens have a bye-week advantage over the Bears?

The Bears at 4-2 with a four-game winning streak and the 10th-ranked scoring offense in the NFL are 6 1/2-point underdogs to the Ravens, who are 1-5 with four straight losses and the 32nd- (and last) ranked defense in the NFL, on Sunday at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore.

Oddsmakers obviously are presuming that Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson will return after missing two-plus games with a hamstring injury. Jackson, a two-time league MVP and at 28 arguably the most dynamic run/pass threat at quarterback in NFL history, makes a huge difference, even if he's rusty from a four-week layoff and less of a running threat coming off the hamstring injury.

Still, the Ravens were 1-2 with Jackson healthy (and trailing 27-13 to the Chiefs in the third quarter when he left with the injury). So even at full strength, that seems like a lot of points against a Bears team on a four-game roll, with Caleb Williams a threat for a big game at any time in the hands of Ben Johnson.

The Ravens have other factors in their favor. They're at home. Three-time All-Pro linebacker Roquan Smith is expected to return after missing two games with a hamstring injury. And the Ravens' defense showed marked improvement even without Roquan in its last game — holding the Rams to 17 points in a 17-3 victory at M&T Bank Stadium on Oct 12 (the Rams have scored 33, 26, 27, 23 and 35 points in their five other games since Week 2).

Besides all that, there's one advantage the Ravens seem to have that could be a factor — they are coming off a bye after the Rams game, which has not only given them an extra week to prepare for the Bears, but an extra week for Jackson, Smith and other beat-up players to recover.

Ravens coach John Harbaugh is one of a handful of NFL coaches whose teams are consistently more successful after a bye than on regular rest — along with Andy Reid (22-4), Mike Tomlin (14-4), Sean McDermott (9-0) and Mike Vrabel (6-0). In good seasons and bad, against good opponents and bad, at home or away, his Ravens teams have consistently played well after the bye week. Overall, the Ravens are 14-3 following the bye under Harbaugh — 8-1 in the last previous nine seasons.

The numbers can be deceiving because of the other factors that go into a post-bye game — it helps to face Brett Hundley and not Aaron Rodgers against the Packers at Lambeau. But Harbaugh's record hardly seems misleading. His only loss in the last decade came in 2020, when the Ravens had a muted home-field advantage against the unbeaten Steelers, with only 4,345 fans at M&T Bank Stadium during the COVID-19 season.

Here's a little closer look at Harbaugh's post-bye record. It's enough evidence to make a difference on Sunday, though nothing insurmountable if Jackson does not play.

---