Daunting schedule can't dull Ben Johnson's edge over Matt Nagy, Marc Trestman

This time for sure?

Ben Johnson is not the first Bears coach to elicit excitement and hope that the Bears will not only become championship contenders, but do it the way most championship teams of recent vintage have done it — with offense. (Since 2009, 14 of 16 Super Bowl winners have ranked in the top 10 in scoring — 11 have ranked in the top 10 in scoring defense.)

• In 2018, Matt Nagy was riding the wave of a similar honeymoon as a rookie Bears head coach — a disciple of Andy Reid with the Chiefs who could develop second-year quarterback Mitch Trubisky.

• In 2013, Marc Trestman, credited with turning Rich Gannon into a league MVP with the Raiders besides his Grey Cup championships with the Montreal Alouettes, was the quarterback-whispering offensive guru who could take Jay Cutler to a new level — not just good quarterback, but winning quarterback.

• You could even go back to 1999 with Gary Crowton, who was the offensive coordinator under first-year head coach Dick Jauron, but his prolific success as the head coach at Louisiana Tech was enticing — leading the nation in passing offense in 1998, including 590 yards against No. 4 Nebraska. (Fun Fact: Crowton's quarterbacks coach with the Bears was John Shoop, who was a mentor of Ben Johnson at North Carolina.)

They all had a degree of early success and quickly fizzled. Nagy's Bears were ninth in scoring in 2018 (with the aid of six return touchdowns), but slumped to 29th, 22nd and 27th the next three seasons before he was fired after the 2021 season. Trestman's offense was second in the NFL in scoring in 2013, but plummeted to 23rd in 2014 — one of many reasons he was fired after that season. And Crowton's offense ranked eighth in total yards — up from 21st the previous season — but dropped to 23rd in 2000 when he left after Week 14 to become the head coach at Brigham Young.

Johnson comes in with better credentials than any of them. He took the Lions from 25th in scoring in 2021 (when he was the tight ends coach) to fifth, fifth and first in his three seasons as offensive coordinator — and with similar talent to what he has with the Bears this season.

Even with the "honeymoon" factor — when just not being the previous coach makes everything he says sounds so right and so good — Johnson objectively seems like a coach who is better prepared for this moment than most first-time head coaches.

And compared to the previous offensive-minded head coaches the Bears have hired since Mike Ditka was fired — Nagy and Trestman — Johnson has more going for him on paper. If this thing blows up, the Bears will be out of excuses and the call for the McCaskeys to sell the team and let someone else give it a shot will be louder than ever.

But we're a long way from that. Johnson might not reach the heights Bears fans are hoping for. But his floor is — or should be — significantly higher, and his tenure figures to trend closer to the Lovie Smith era than Trestman, John Fox, Nagy or Matt Eberflus before him. He might not go to the Super Bowl like Lovie did in 2006, but after a 5-11 debut in 2004, Lovie was never worse than 7-9 in the next eight seasons. With what he has to work with, Johnson, like Lovie, should be able to avoid the disastrous seasons — with this season a bit of an unknown with a second-year quarterback and tough schedule.

I still think that as an offensive coach with a quarterback drafted No. 1 overall, this is the best situation a Bears first-year coach has been in since the Ditka era. Dave Wannstedt, Lovie and Fox all had quality credentials coming in, but they were defensive coaches who did not have control of the quarterback or the offense that Johnson has.

Johnson not only has his hands on the quarterback and the offense, but he inherits a defense that should be on the way up. And even if Dennis Allen's defense disappoints, Johnson should be good enough to avoid disaster. With Johnson's offense, the Lions were 13-13 when they allowed 23 or more points in 2022-24. The Bears were 0-25 in the same span. With Johnson's offense, the Lions were 11-9 when allowing 400 or more yards. The Bears were 0-16 in that span.

Be that as it may, here's a look at how the Bears look heading into Johnson's first season as head coach compared to Trestman's first season in 2013 and Nagy's lid-lifter in 2018: