Bears QB Caleb Williams on pace with the Josh Allen comp — but it comes with a catch

Caleb Williams established himself as the Bears’ franchise quarterback in 2025 with more certainty than any Bears quarterback since Jay Cutler when he was acquired in a trade with the Broncos in 2009. And yet, let the record show that Williams ranked 22nd in the NFL in passer rating this season (90.1) and 34th in completion percentage (58.1%). His 3,942 passing yards were a ballyhooed Bears franchise record, but still just seventh overall in the NFL. In fact, his 231.9 yards per game ranked 13th — pretty close to the middle of the pack. 

Those are fairly modest numbers for a player whom many Bears fans would not trade for any young quarterback in the NFL — Drake Maye included — and probably most of the veteran quarterbacks. Caleb is their guy, and rightfully so after Williams made a career’s worth of highlight-reel plays that helped carry the Bears to an 11-6 regular-season record (from 5-12 in 2024) and not only the Bears’ first playoff victory since 2010, but against the Packers in a grudge match that Bears fans will be celebrating and clinging to years from now, when the Bears are struggling again. 

But there’s always a reminder that Williams and the Bears have a long way to go to repeat their last era of consistent championship contention under Mike Ditka four decades ago. It was all too typical of the Bears that the playoff loss to the Rams that has fans more optimistic than in recent memory was punctuated by a Williams touchdown pass to Cole Kmet that was on a par with any play Tom Brady, Joe Montana, or Aaron Rodgers has ever made, and an interception that was as Jay Cutler-esque as Jay Cutler could get — a “miscommunication” with DJ Moore, with analysts debating the culpability, Moore disappearing in the aftermath and Ben Johnson unable to provide any clarity because he still has not looked at the tape three days later. 

Williams answered the biggest question heading into the Ben Johnson era — Is he really the quarterback Johnson can build around? But he was also the one pre-season goal that missed the target the most: Johnson’s stated landmark of 70% completions. 

Johnson wasn’t asked at his end-of-season press conference Wednesday at Halas Hall why Williams missed that mark so badly this season, and perhaps Williams’ ability to overcome that flaw and find success with big plays and late-game heroics made it a back-burner issue. Was it his footwork? His mechanics? Receivers drops? Or a product of everyone being in the first year of Johnson’s offense?

Either way, Williams still heads into the 2026 season matching the comp of comps, the quarterback-development template that is applied every imperfect young quarterback in the NFL these days — the Bills’ Josh Allen. 

In his second NFL season in 2019, Allen established himself as the quarterback the Bills can build around, but like Williams, with modest production. Allen’s passer rating was 85.3 (24th in the NFL). He completed 58.8% of his passes (32nd). His 3,089 passing yards ranked 23rd. 

Allen’s season ended with a mediocre performance in the playoffs — a 22-19 overtime loss to the Texans when he completed 24-of-46 passes (52.2%) for 264 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions for a 69.5 passer rating. (Williams also lost by three points in overtime, and was 23 of 42 (54.8%) for 257 yards but with two touchdowns and three interceptions for a 59.3 passer rating.)

But the following season, Allen blossomed into an MVP candidate. His completion percentage improved from 58.8 to 69.2. His passing yardage improved from 3,089 to 4,544. His passer rating improved from 85.3 to a 107.2. He finished second to Rodgers in MVP voting. 

With previous Bears coaches and offensive coordinator, it would take some serious cherry-picking to apply the Allen comp to Williams. But with Williams in Johnson’s hands, every possibility is real. That’s yet another reason why the Bears’ outlook heading into this offseason is as positive as any offseason — arguably — since the Ditka era. 

But, alas, even the vaunted Allen comp comes with a catch. As Dan Wiederer of The Athletic pointed out, even the Allen comp now serves as a cautionary tale for Bears fans.

Allen is in the midst of a fabulous career, winning the MVP award in 2024. But he still hasn’t played in a Super Bowl. And after four season-ending playoff losses to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, Allen and the Bills didn’t even have to slay the dragon to reach the top this season — the Chiefs missed the playoffs at 6-11. 

Yet with the coast clear of their perennial postseason nemesis, Allen still fell short in the moment. The same guy who went toe-to-toe with Mahomes in the biggest moments faltered notably and was outplayed by Bo Nix in a 33-30 overtime loss to the Broncos at Mile High Stadium. Allen threw three touchdown passes, but also threw two interceptions and lost two fumbles — one on a brain cramp at the end of the first half when he seemingly tried to lateral on a scramble and lost the ball. It led to a last-play field goal by the Broncos that made the difference. 

And now, after a run of success Bears fans wold take in a minute — Allen’s latest playoff failure played a part in the Bills’ strange turn to dysfunction under generally respected team owner Terry Pegula. After witnessing his team’s pain in the lockker room after the playoff loss to the Broncos, Pegula fired coach Sean McDermott (with Allen’s tearful response to the loss in the locker room playing a part in that decision) and promoted general manager Brandon Beane to president of football operations. 

In a bizarre press conference Wednesday that was reminiscent of so many embarrassing Bears press conferences, Pegula interrupted a question to Beane about wide receiver Keon Coleman to blame the coaching staff for talking Beane into that draft pick. Not only was his argument undercut by a team-issued video from the 2024 scouting combine of Beane clearly being enamored with Coleman, but he tacitly criticized Coleman for being a bust while Coleman is still on the roster. 

That’s how tenuous life is in the NFL. One minute you’re neck-and-neck with the NFL’s reigning gold standard. The next minute you’re being compared to the Bears at their dysfunctional worst. So the lesson for Ben Johnson, Caleb Williams and everyone at Halas Hall is more clear than ever: Make the most of it, because with few exceptions, success in the NFL doesn’t last long. 

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