Bears' victory over Packers could be costly in the draft

The Bears’ walk-off 24-22 victory over the Packers on Cairo Santos’ 51-yard field goal in the season finale at Lambeau Field was a thrilling finish to a dreadful season. It ended a 10-game losing streak, didn’t prevent a coaching change and allowed owner Virginia McCaskey to see the Bears beat the rival Packers before she passed away on Feb. 6.

But there was one small price to pay that could loom large this week — three spots in the NFL Draft. The Bears’ 5-12 finish gave them the 10th overall pick in the draft, which on paper is looking like no-man’s land — too low to get one of the elite players in the draft, but a spot that might be no more valuable than No. 14 or 15. 

It could be that No. 7 also leaves the Bears short of getting Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty or LSU offensive tackle Will Campbell or Michigan defensive tackle Mason Graham. But it would put them in a better position to move up, which they might do anyway. It’s telling that many mock drafts have the Bears trading up (usually for Jeanty) or down (often for Texas offensive tackle Kelvin Banks, with Campbell and Missouri’s Armand Membou off the board). 

Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty is predicted to go to the Raiders with the No. 5 overall pick in Thursday night's NFL Draft. But a lot could change by then.

The Bears picked the wrong year to go 5-12. Last year the Chargers went 5-12 and picked fifth (and took offensive tackle Joe Alt, who started from Week 1 and made several all-rookie teams). In fact, in the three seasons of the 17-game schedule, a 5-12 record earned you No. 6 (2022), Nos. 5 or 6 (2023) and No. 5 (2024). There are more bad teams than ever in the tanking era. 

The Bears have little room to complain about draft board luck after having the No. 1 pick in the last two drafts. But those three picks they lost by beating the Packers could come back to bite them. In Ryan Pace’s first draft, three picks were the difference between Amari Cooper (No. 4 to the Raiders) and Kevin White (No. 7 to the Bears. Even one pick can make a big difference. In 2014, Phil Emery took cornerback Kyle Fuller at No. 14 after the Rams took his main target, defensive tackle Aaron Donald, at No. 13. 

Not that the Bears should have told Santos to miss that kick, but it’s uncanny how even victories over the rival Packers seem to come back and bite the Bears. In the glorious 2018 season under Matt Nagy, the Bears sealed a 24-17 victory over the Packers at Soldier Field that clinched the NFC North on an interception by safety Eddie Jackson — who suffered an ankle injury on the return and missed the playoffs, a 15-14 home loss to the Eagles.

It’s understandable why NFL teams put the ultimate value in winning games no matter what, but sometimes that flies in the face of common sense. If you can win and get Kyle Fuller or lose and get Aaron Donald, which scenario is actually doing “what’s best for the Chicago Bears”? That’s a bit of a ridiculous extreme, but many NFL people insist it’s the former. I say unquestionably it’s the latter. 

Be that as it may, the Bears will have several options in the draft and more than ever have to be prepared to respond to unusual circumstances that ensue. 

Without having done the prep work the Bears’ personnel staff has done — like interviews, film work and background — their best bet is an offensive player if they can’t get an absolutely elite difference-making defender like Carter is supposed to be. 

Ben Johnson had a knack for maxing out offensive players with the Lions. The Bears need to prioritize that. Johnson’s offense turns fourth-rounders into first-rounders (Amon-Ra St. Brown) and second-rounders into first-rounders (Sam LaPorta). But it also can turn a No. 12 pick into a top-five pick (Jahmyr Gibbs). 

The Bears have gone all-in on Johnson so far,  paying a reported $13 milliion a year to get him, then rebuilding the interior of the offensive line in the free agency period to give him the best chance to get his side of the ball right. Don’t stop now.