Another moment of truth for the Tom Thibodeau Effect

Tom Thibodeau’s old-school coaching m.o. has been pretty clear since his first head-coaching job with the Bulls in 2010-11. He conditions his players through intensive work in practice and in games to instill a mental toughness that often gives his team an edge in the fourth quarter of close games — especially against teams near or at his team’s talent level. To see that abstract effect first-hand covering Thibs’ teams with the Bulls was one of the joys of covering sports. 

But, especially in this day and age, that tack comes with a cost. Those Bulls teams eventually wore down — either through injury or fatigue. And the mental toughness advantage can only carry you so far against LeBron James. 

Thibodeau’s first and best team — the 2010-11 Bulls — was a joy to watch. Thibs’ hard-driving ways pushed Derrick Rose to an MVP season and the Bulls went from 41-41 in Vinny Del Negro’s final season to 62-20 and the best record in the NBA. 

Tom Thibodeau when he was introduced as the Bulls' head coach in 2010.

The second-round victory over Hawks was a Thibs’ team at its best — wearing down the Hawks with supreme mental toughness. The Hawks shot 7-for-13 from three-point range in a Game 1 upset at the United Center. They shot 10-for-53 from three-point range the rest of the series — including 1-for-12 in Game 5  at the UC and 1-for-11 in Game 6 at home, both Bulls victories to close out the series. 

But after beating the LeBron, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh and the Heat in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, the Bulls lost their edge. They were outscored 12-3 in the final five minutes of Game 2; 28-18 in the final 11 minutes of Game 3; 16-8 in overtime in Game 4; and 18-3 in the final 3:10 of Game 5 at the UC to lose the series 4 games to 1. 

Thibs and Bulls general manager Gar Forman in happier times.

That’s a pattern that Thibs has been unable to shake ever since. Whether his teams achieve or overachieve, they hit the wall early. Last year, the Knicks — even with a Thibs-produced Rose-like difference-maker in Jalen Brunson — took a 2-0 series lead over the Pacers in the second round, then lost four of the next five games, including a blowout loss in Game 7 at Madison Square Garden. 

Thibs, a nice guy but not the most media-friendly coach ever, is one of my favorite Chicago coaches, probably because he’s old school and close to my age. (Fun Fact: Four of the most successful Chicago coaches in the last 25 years were born in 1958: Thibs, Joel Quenneville, Vic Fangio and Lovie Smith — hmmm …) 

But as much as I pull for him to succeed, I can’t ignore the irony that hovers over his coaching career like a dark cloud: the root of his teams’ success is also the root of their demise. In 17 career NBA playoff series, Thibodeau’s teams are 29-21 (.580) in Games 1-3 and 14-28 (.333) in Games 4-7. In the second and third rounds of the playoffs, the disparity is even greater — Thibs' teams are 11-9 (.550) in Games 1-3 and 4-13 (.235) in Games 4-7. 

So even after the Knicks upset the Celtics in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference semifinals on Wednesday night at TD Garden, Thibs has a long way to go to disprove the notion that his coaching style that demands high minutes from his starters is ultimately unsustainable. Thibs himself said it best after winning Game 1: “It’s one win.” 

Tom Thibodeau talks to the media prior to playing the Lakers in 2014. ("Erik" is 2013 second-round draft pick Eric Murphy.)