1st-and-10: The Ben Johnson Effect — Ryan Poles is on a roll

Ben Johnson was hired to make a quarterback out of Caleb Williams. But he’s also making a general manager out of Ryan Poles. 

Before Johnson was hired, Poles had more misses than hits — he traded for the eventual No. 1 overall pick (Williams) and wide receiver DJ Moore, drafted offensive tackle Darnell Wright and traded for defensive end Montez Sweat; but he also hired head coach Matt Eberflus, signed guard Nate Davis in free agency, drafted wide receiver Velus Jones and offensive lineman Kiran Amegadjie in the third round, traded a second-round draft pick (No. 32 overall) for wide receiver Chase Claypool, signed off on offensive coordinator Shane Waldron and stuck with Eberflus after two losing seasons when he could have pursued Jim Harbaugh — or Ben Johnson — with a quarterback about to be picked No. 1 overall.

Since Johnson was hired, Poles has had a much more efficient touch. He aggressively upgraded the offensive line by trading for left guard Joe Thuney and right guard Jonah Jackson, signing center Drew Dalman and drafting offensive tackle Ozzy Trapilo in the second round. That’s a huge improvement from his offensive line rebuild for Eberflus — Davis, Wright, Lucas Patrick, Coleman Shelton, Braxton Jones, Riley Reiff and Michael Schofield at the top of that list. 

Let’s put it this way: Before Johnson was hired, Poles traded a fifth-round draft pick (No. 144) for Bates. After Johnson was hired, he traded a fourth-round pick (currently No. 131) for Thuney, the best guard in the NFL, and a sixth-round draft pick for Jackson, former Pro Bowl player. 

With the hiring of Johnson and the upgrading of the offensive line, the Bears have a running attack that maximizes any back in it, like the Kyle Shanahan 49ers (Raheem Mostert, Elijah Mitchell, Matt Breida) and the Sean McVay Rams (Kyren Williams, Cam Akers). Before Johnson was hired, he signed D’Andre Swift to a three-year, $24.5 million contract. After Johnson was hired, he drafted Kyle Monangai in the seventh round. Over the Bears’ last seven games, their production is virtually identical — Swift is averaging 79.8 yards per game, 5.3 per carry with three touchdowns; Monangai is averaging 72.9 yards per game, 5.2 yards per carry with five touchdowns. 

Poles gets due credit for hiring Johnson, but like the drafting of Williams, that’s like putting “O” in the center of a tic-tac-toe game — a move anyone would make. And it was the historic disaster of the Eberflus demise — the first in-season firings of an offensive coordinator and head coach in franchise history — that created the urgency for the Bears to break the bank and get the best candidate available. 

Still, Poles turned a bad situation into a good one and now is on a roll. He has a productive draft class with tight end Colston Loveland, wide receiver Luther Burden, Monangai, and even Trapilo starting the past two games after failing to win the left tackle job in training camp. 

Sometimes all a GM like Ryan Poles needs is the wind at his back. Jason Licht was 34-62 in his first six seasons as the Buccaneers’ GM — a worse record than Ryan Pace with the Bears. But in 2019 he hired Bruce Arians — ironically a connection he developed only after losing the Bears’ GM job to Phil Emery in 2012 — and that played a part in signing Tom Brady in 2020. And the Buccaneers won a Super Bowl and two division titles. Even since Arians and Brady left, Licht and the Buccaneers (7-5) in line for their third consecutive winning season and playoff berth with Baker Mayfield at quarterback.

Ryan Poles suddenly has the potential for that kind of success. If he ever hoists the Lombardi Trophy, he’ll have Ben Johnson to thank, with a nod to Lovie Smith. 

2. As “statement” games go, the Bears’ 24-15 upset of the Eagles could end up ranking with the best statement games of the Mike Ditka era as a harbinger of success — the 23-19 upset of the Redskins in the NFC playoffs in 1984; the 26-10 victory over the defending Super Bowl champion 49ers (“We remembered to pack our offense this time.”); and the 44-0 demolition of the Cowboys to go 12-0. 

The Bears have had statement games since then, but none that led to sustained success. With a potential elite quarterback in Williams, an offensive line that produced 281 rushing yards against the Eagles and Johnson running the show, the Bears have more potential for a run of success not seen since the Ditka era. The Bears haven’t had more than two consecutive winning seasons since 1984-88. 

3a. The Bears 281 rushing yards not only were 109 yards more than the Eagles have allowed in Vic Fangio’s two seasons as defensive coordinator, but the second-most allowed by a Fangio defense in his 25 seasons as an NFL coordinator/head coach. And the most since 2005, when the Seahawks rushed for 320 yards against a Fangio defense that ranked last in the NFL in rushing with the fourth-year Texans. 

3b. The Eagles’ defense had not allowed a running back to gain 100 yards or more this season before Monangai (22 carries, 130 yards, one touchdown) and Swift (18-125, one touchdown) eclipsed the 100-yard mark Friday. It’s the first time a Fangio defense has allowed two 100-yard rushers since that 2005 game against the Seahawks — Shaun Alexander (22-141, four touchdowns) and Maurice Morris (8-104, one touchdown) in a 42-10 victory at Qwest Field. 

4a. Several Bears are playing with hungry hearts. The upset of the Eagles assured the Bears (9-3) of their first winning season since 2018 (12-4). In fact, this will be the first winning season for six veterans who have played five seasons or more in the NFL: wide receiver DJ Moore (eight), defensive tackle Andrew Billings (eight), defensive end Montez Sweat (seven), tight end Cole Kmet (six), cornerback Jaylon Johnson (six) and center Drew Dalman (five). 

4b. On the other hand, newcomer C.J. Gardner-Johnson will be on a winning team for the seventh time in his seven NFL seasons — the Saints in 2019 (13-3), 2020 (12-4) and 2021 (9-8); the Eagles in 2022 (14-3); the Lions in 2023 (12-5) and the Eagles in 2024 (14-3).

And Gardner-Johnson started this season with the Texans, who are 7-5 after an 0-3 start. Gardner-Johnson is now 73-22 (.768) in NFL games he’s played in, including 9-4 in the playoffs.

5. After the Bears’ rushed for 281 yards against a Eagles run defense anchored by Jalen Carter, it’s fair to put Darnell Wright in the win column for Poles, who passed on Carter at No. 9 to take Wright at No. 10 (trading down one spot with the Eagles) in the 2023 draft. 

Carter was an All-Pro last season and the Eagles won the Super Bowl, but he’s not Aaron Donald — which is the level he’d have to be at to make the Wright choice a mistake. On the contrary, Wright is likely to make the Pro Bowl this season — with two or three viral highlights, including a block on Carter against the Eagles — and looks like he’ll be at that level for awhile. 

6. Eagles coach Nick Sirianni’s decision to go for a two-point conversion following Jalen Hurts’ four-yard touchdown pass to A.J. Brown that cut the Bears’ lead to 24-15 with 3:10 left in the fourth quarter ignited a national social media debate on the strategy of going for two when down by nine points. Had the Eagles kicked the PAT, it would have been a one-score game. 

The debate hinges on a key factor: Are offenses in that scenario more likely to play “scared” or conservatively when protecting a one-score lead than with a two-score lead? By missing the two-point conversion, the Bears’ offense didn’t have that pressure, knowing they would have to fail twice to lose the game. 

I don’t think there’s much doubt that even good teams play tighter when there’s greater risk of losing. Even Ben Johnson and Caleb “He’s built for this” Williams, who are notably aggressive and productive when coming from behind in the final minutes, were notably passive and unproductive when protecting a 31-28 lead against the Steelers — two three-and-outs, with a net of eight yards on six plays.

For what it’s worth, when the Bears are leading by one score in the final four minutes this season, Williams has a 49.3 passer rating (1 for 3, 14 yards) with no rushing attempts. When the Bears are leading by two scores in the final four minutes, Williams has a 124.2 passer rating (two touchdowns, no interceptions) with two rushes for 13 yards (one first down). 

7. If the Eagles victory was a statement game, Sunday’s game against the Packers is an even bigger test of the Bears’ playoff mettle — back-to-back road games against playoff-caliber opponents. 

The Bears haven’t won back-to-back games against eventual playoff teams since 2006, when they beat the Giants 38-20 and the Jets 10-0 in consecutive Sundays at the Meadowlands — on their way to the Super Bowl. 

8. Quick Hits: The Bears lead the NFL with 54 rushes of 10 or more yards (Swift 24, Monangai 12, Williams 12). The Ravens are second with 48. … the Bears’ strength of victory improved to .33 (37-71-1) with the win over the 8-4 Eagles, but that’s still 14th among 17 teams with winning records. … The top seeds in the NFC and AFC have played the weakest strength-of-schedule in the NFL  — the 9-3 Bears (.376, 54-90-1) and 11-2 Patriots (.342, 54-104). … Raiders rookie Ashton Jeanty, who had 21 carries for 128 yards (6.6 average) against the Bears, is averaging 45.2 yards per game and 3.1 yards per carry against the rest of the NFL. … Caleb Williams has started 29 consecutive games. The last Bears quarterback to start every game in consecutive seasons was Bob Avellini in 1976-77 (28 total starts). 

9. Josh McCown Ex-Bears Player of the Week: Panthers right guard Jake Curhan started for starter Chandler Zavala and helped pave the way for 164 rushing yards in a 31-28 upset of the Rams. 

Curhan, who started the final two games for the Bears last year, previously stepped in for Zavala in a 16-13 victory over the Packers at Lambeau Field — his second consecutive victory over the Packers at Lambeau. No Bears player has beaten the Packers twice in a row at any venue since 2007. 

10. Bear-ometer — 13-4: at Packers (W); vs. Browns (W); vs. Packers (W); at 49ers (L); vs. Lions (W).

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