1st-and-10: Shades of 2012? We'll see about that

With yet another exhilarating victory, the Bears 7-3 start under rookie head coach Ben Johnson keeps evoking memories of previous glorious seasons in the post-Ditka era. To wit: 

• The uncanny, fantastic finishes in victories over the Raiders, Commanders, Bengals , Giants and Vikings has been reminiscent of the miraculous 2001 season, highlighted by Mike Brown’s back-to-back game-ending pick-6s. 

• The feel-good energy and rejuvenation under Johnson and an opportunistic defense leading the NFL in takeaways are similar to Matt Nagy’s rookie season of 2018, the last time the Bears were 7-3. 

• The momentum shift after an 0-2 start and sense that the Bears are building a foundation for future success is a lot like 2005 under Lovie Smith, when the Bears started 1-3 and won eight consecutive games to set the tone for the Super Bowl season of 2006. 

• Johnson scored his biggest victory yet Sunday when the Bears beat the Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium — shades of 1994, when Dave Wannstedt made the playoffs in his second season and had his biggest victory against the Vikings on the road in the playoffs. 

But as the Bears season stands right now — with all seven victories over teams with losing records and a much more difficult schedule in the final seven games — the more applicable Bears reference-point is a little more sobering: 2012, when Lovie Smith’s Bears started 7-1 against an easy schedule and predictably lost five of six games against playoff-bound teams and missed the playoffs at 10-6. 

In case nobody knows it, the Bears haven’t beaten anybody. Their strength of victory (.285, 20-51-1) is last among the 17 NFL teams with five or more wins. (Even if you exclude those teams’ victory over the Bears, the strength of victory is still last at .315.) Their “best” victory is over the Cowboys (4-5-1), who themselves have the worst strength of victory (.214) in the entire NFL. And the seven teams the Bears have beaten are getting worse — a combined 6-29 in their last five games (6-25 excluding losses to the Bears). 

On paper, that party is over. The Bears’ remaining schedule includes six of seven teams with winning records (a combined 39-20-1, .658) — the Steelers (6-4), Eagles (8-2), Packers (6-3-1) home and away, 49ers (7-4) and Lions (6-4). The only losing team is the Browns (2-8), who arguably have the best defense the Bears will face this season (second in yards, third in sacks, though 17th in points allowed).

By the numbers, 2025 is eerily similar to 2012. Heading into Week 10 that season, the seven teams the Bears had beaten in their 7-1 start were a combined 21-36 (.368), while their next six opponents were a combined 34-18 (.654). The feared correction happened. The Bears lost five of those six (beating the Vikings 28-10 at Soldier Field) to fall to 8-6. Not even victories over the 5-11 Cardinals and 4-12 Lions could get them in the playoffs at 10-6. 

But that’s where the similarities end. The 2012 team was past its prime, with Brian Urlacher chasing Russell Wilson in futility — and suffering a career-ending hamstring injury — in an overtime loss to Pete Carroll’s up-and-coming Seahawks the dreary snapshot of the end of the Lovie era. 

The 2025 team’s arrow is pointing up, with a promising — arguably better — quarterback in the hands of a head coach with credentials in building a sustainable NFL offense. These Bears are due for a correction. But with Johnson, Caleb Williams and offensive line continuity, the 2025 Bears have room for growth that can meet any challenge. 

1b. For What It's Worth Dept.: The playoff team with the worst strength of victory has not won a postseason game since 2019, when the Vikings (.356) beat the Saints 26-20 in a wild-card game. Those teams are 2-8 in the last 10 postseasons — including the Bears in 2020 (.336), when they snuck into the playoffs at 8-8 and lost to the Saints 21-9 at the Superdome.

2. Culture change is a little like momentum in hockey — you have it until you don’t. But the Ben Johnson Effect on the Bears’ offense is real. Even in a formative state, this offense plays with a push-the-pile verve that seems linked to Johnson’s influence. 

That was never more evident than on Rome Odunze’s 17-yard reception against the Vikings. Odunze dove for a six-yard reception, then got up and bulled his way to the 17-yard gain — with help from Kyle Monangai, Joe Thuney, Theo Benedet, Cole Kmet and Luther Burden. 

3. When Theo Benedet left the field with an injury against the Vikings, it ended a string of — appropriately for Chicago — 312 consecutive snaps for the offensive line combination of Benedet, Thuney, Drew Dalman, Jonah Jackson and Darnell Wright.

But perhaps a sign of better luck, Benedet missed only one play. So that combination has played 378 of 379 snaps in the last six games. The Bears in fact, have lost 12 offensive line snaps to in-game injuries through 10 games this season. That’s far better than 2024, when the offensive line lost 393 snaps to in-game injuries. Johnson’s Lions lost 19. It remains to be seen if coaching good fortune travels, but so far, the indications are that it does. 

4. To most coaches, there’s no such thing as scoring too soon, but the Vikings did Sunday — when J.J. McCarthy through a 15-yard touchdown pass to Jordan Addison with 50 seconds left in the fourth quarter. 

It used to be that the clock was an issue — even with less than 60 seconds to play — with quarterbacks like Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. But now, with touchbacks bringing the ball to the 35 and kickers using preferred K-balls to make 60-yard field goals at a 50-percent clip (7 of 14), almost any offense is a threat when all you need is a field goal to win or tie. 

Even without Devin Duvernay’s 59-yard kick return, the Bears were a threat with 50 seconds and two time outs in that situation. And in the old days, that return would have never happened. The kickoff would have gone out of the end zone, with the Bears taking possession at the 25. 

5a. Veterans Montez Sweat, Andrew Billings, Cole Kmet and Jaylon Johnson, who have a combined 27 seasons in the NFL, are on a winning team through 10 games for the first time in their careers. And DJ Moore is on a team with a winning record after 10 games for the first time since his rookie season of 2018, when the Panthers were 6-4 but already two games into a seven-game losing streak that would lead to a 7-9 finish. 

5b. Success has come with a personal cost for Moore. He averaged 67.9 receiving yards in his first 36 games with the Bears (202 receptions, 2,444 yards, 14 touchdowns), when they were 12-24. But with Odunze eclipsing him as the Bears’ No. 1 receiver, Moore is averaging 38.4 receiving yards in the last eight games (23-307, one touchdown), when the Bears are 7-1. 

6. Kmet also has seen his production diminish as the Bears improve their roster — his 21.3 receiving yards per game is the lowest since his rookie season in 2020 (15.3) — and half of his peak of 42.3 yards per game in 2023. 

But physically as well, for some reason. Kmet missed his first game in six NFL seasons against the Ravens with a back issue, then left the Bengals game with a concussion. On Sunday, Kmet took a helmet-to-helmet hit from cornerback Isaiah Rodgers (when both players lowered their head at the point of contact) but stayed in the game.

Meanwhile, rookie Colston Loveland seems to have a force-field around him. For the second time in three games, two defenders who had a bead on him whiffed to spring him for big gains. Bengals safeties Jordan Battle and Geno Stone missed on the 58-yard game-winning touchdown in Week 9. On Sunday, Vikings safeties Harrison Smith (!) and Josh Metellus whiffed to turn a short gain into a 24-yard gain on third-and-14.

7. Two historical trends — one a little less random than the other — will collide if Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers starts Sunday. The Steelers are 1-13 against the Bears in Chicago (the Steel Curtain never played at Soldier Field). But Rodgers is 25-4 against the Bears in games he has started and finished — including the last eight in a row and 12 of 13 with the Packers. Rodgers is 12-3 at Soldier Field. It’s likely to take more than a broken wrist to keep him out of this one. 

8. Quick Hits: The Bears pulled themselves out of a second-and-25 hole in the first quarter — starting with Williams' 24-yard pass to Rome Odunze. It was only the fifth time (out of 35 opportunities) in the last 10 seasons they've converted after needing 25 or more yards for a first down. ... Williams' pass to Odunze was the longest wiith 25 or more yards to go for a first since Jay Cutler's 67-yard touchdown to Johnny Knox on first-and-30 against the Vikings at TCF Bank Stadium in 2010. ... Unsung heroes: tight end Durham Smythe's block led to Swift's seven-yard run that turned Cairo Santos' game-winner from a 55 yards to 48; Josh Blackwell had the key block that sprung Duvernay for his 59-yard return ... Players should not be allowed to wear yellow sleeves like Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison did Sunday — or yellow socks or shoes for that matter. Even the broadcasters saw penalty flags where there were none Sunday. ... After containing NFL sack leader Brian Burns against the Giants, Darnell Wright was less effective against the Vikings, who were without leading edge rusher Jonathan Greenard. He'll have to turn it up to 11 against Sunday against Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt. ... Cornerback C.J. Gardner-Johnson is now 71-22 (.763) in games he has played during his NFL career.

9. Josh McCown Ex-Bears Player of the Week: 49ers kicker Eddy Piñeiro was 3-of-3 on field goals — from 48, 47 and 47 yards — in a 41-22 victory over the Cardinals. 

Pineiro, who made his last 11 field goals for the Bears in 2019 before being replaced by Cairo Santos in 2020, is 22 for 22 on field goals with the 49ers since being signed in Week 2 to replace Jake Moody. He's 6 for 6 from 50 yards or longer — hitting from 59, 55, 54, 54, 52 and 51 yards.

10. Bear-ometer — 10-7: vs. Steelers (W); at Eagles (L); at Packers (L); vs. Browns (W); vs. Packers (W); at 49ers (L); vs. Lions (L).

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