1st-and-10: Bears' progression will trump regression in 2026

After a rejuvenating season that ended in a 20-17 overtime loss to the Rams in the divisional playoffs on Sunday at Soldier Field, the Bears will be a target of skeptics who have them pegged for a regression in 2026 — unlikely to sustain their uncanny knack for rallying in the fourth quarter to win. 

That’s not a big surprise. I just didn’t expect Ben Johnson and Cole Kmet to be among those leaning that way, putting immediate brakes on the notion that this season was just the start for the Bears. 

“It’s going to be twice as hard to get to this point,” Kmet told reporters in the aftermath of the season-ending loss. And you can’t take for granted the opportunities you get in this league to get this chance … To just think it’s just going to happen again, that’s very wishful thinking. Very wishful.” 

“Next season is next season,” Johnson said. “It’s whole different group. It’s a different chapter. We’ll have to write our whole brand new chapter.” 

Kmet’s reticence to jump on the 2026 hype train makes some sense. Not only is he the local Bear who more than any previous local Bear has felt the pain of growing up a Bears fan, but he might not be here next season. Kind of a shame that after years of having to answer locker clean-out day questions about a possible or actual coaching change — after 2020 (Matt Nagy), 2021 (Nagy), 2023 (Matt Eberflus) and 2024 (Eberflus), Kmet has an opportunity to legitimately be excited about the Bears being Super Bowl contenders, and for whatever reason he puts on the brakes. 

Maybe it’s just the scars of the Bears being the Bears for so long, but tamping down the notion that 2025 was a stepping stone if not a launch point for better things in 2026 seemed like an odd theme in the aftermath of Sunday’s loss.

The overtime loss was a disappointment, but nothing like previous disappointing season-ending losses. Those losses were marked by indelible moments seared into the scarred consciousness of Bears fans — Javon Wims’ drop in the end zone against the Saints in 2020, Cody Parkey’s double-doink field goal miss against the Eagles in 2018; Aaron Rodgers’ 48-yard touchdown pass to Randall Cobb in the final minute in 2013 (or Jarrett Boykin’s return of a presumed dead ball for a touchdown, take your pick), B.J. Raji’s interception of Caleb Hanie (or Jay Cutler on a stationary bike) in the NFC Championship game in 2010. 

And even if Caleb Williams’ third interception joins that group, the play that will live eternally in NFL history from that game will always be Williams’ unbelievable fourth-and-four touchdown pass to Kmet when he back-pedaled from the 14-yard line to near midfield under pressure from three defenders and while still back-pedaling, unleashed a desperation throw that sailed through the frigid night air and into the arms of an open Kmet in the back corner of the end zone to tie the game 14-14 with 18 seconds left in the fourth quarter.

Of course the Bears might never have a better chance to win the Super Bowl. Of course, this season’s success doesn’t guarantee anything for next season. Of course, the Bears personnel will be different. But it’s been evident that Bears’ arrow would be pointing up heading into 2026 since Johnson’s impact on the Bears was taking hold near mid-season, and Sunday’s loss  to the Rams did nothing to change that.

In Johnson and Williams, the Bears have a foundation for success they haven’t had since the Ditka era. Even the Super Bowl team in 2006 had the Good Rex/Bad Rex issue at quarterback to deal with. 

The skepticism is legit. The Bears are unlikely to repeat their league-leading 33 takeaways. And they’re unlikely to win seven games with fourth-quarter rallies. But with Johnson and Williams and receivers Rome Odunze, Colston Loveland and Luther Burden (and possibly DJ Moore), the strength of the team has significant room for growth (unlike the 2018 team, which lost defensive coordinator Vic Fangio).

Dan Campbell’s Lions, who looked like they were set for a multi-year run of success but are suddenly at a crossroads after slumping to 9-8 after going 15-2 in 2024, are a cautionary tale. But the Lions lost Ben Johnson. They lost Aaron Glenn. The Bears are keeping Ben Johnson. And Dennis Allen, a twice-fired head coach, isn’t likely to be going anywhere. (And while the Lions weren’t as consistently potent on offense without Johnson, they still were fourth in the NFL in scoring; they actually missed Glenn more — dropping from seventh to 22nd in points allowed. 

Even if the Bears take another step on offense in 2026, it remains to be seen if they become the Bengals with Joe Burrow or the Rams with Matthew Stafford, or the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes. But one-hit wonders? That would be an unlikely turn of events, even at star-crossed Halas Hall. 

2. The Bears will play a presumably more difficult first-place schedule in 2026. And opponents have a season of tape on Johnson’s Bears offense. But injuries will be the biggest x-factor in their 2026 season. 

The Bears had their share of injuries in 2025, but their losses were survivable, in part to astute acquisitions by general manager Ryan Poles. 

• All-Pro cornerback Jaylon Johnson missed 10 games and wasn’t not a full strength when he did play, but Nashshon Wright filled in admirably. 

• Slot cornerback Kyler Gordon played just three games, but C.J. Gardner-Johnson was an impactful replacement and gave the defense a needed jolt of energy. 

• Linebacker T.J. Edwards missed seven games, but D’Marco Jackson played well in his absence — with 15 tackles against the Steelers and a sack and interception against the Browns, winning the NFC Defensive Player of the Week Award. 

• Defensive end Dayo Odeyingbo (remember him?) suffered a season-ending achilles injury against the Bengals, but Austin Booker was an upgrade in his place. 

• Wide receiver Rome Odunze missed the final five games of the regular season, but Loveland, Moore, Burden, Kmet, Olamide Zaccheaus and even rookie Jahdae Walker made big plays in his absence. 

The Bears were healthy where it mattered most. Caleb Williams started every game for the second consecutive season. And the Bears’ four established — and best — offensive linemen started a combined 75 of 76 starts and played 98.0% of the Bears’ 1,313 offensive snaps this season: center Drew Dalman (1,313, 100%), left guard Joe Thuney (1,308, 99.6%), right guard Jonah Jackson (1,292, 98.4%) and right tackle Darnell Wright (1,233, 93.9%). 

The Bears could have fewer missed games because of injury next season, but suffer greater loss if the wrong players get injured. The Bears and Chargers — two teams on similar upswings — both lost two starting offensive linemen this season. The Bears lost Week 1 starting left tackle Braxton Jones for 12 games (he was in the process of losing his job to Theo Benedet when he was injured) and rookie Ozzy Trapilo in the wild-card victory over the Packers. The Chargers lost Rashawn Slater in training camp and Joe Alt in Week 9.

So the Bears lost two of their three weakest starters. The Chargers lost their two best starters. The Bears lost Odeyingbo. The Packers lost Micah Parsons. The Packers lost Tucker Kraft. The Lions lost Sam LaPorta. When the Bears lost Loveland to a concussion with 1:30 left in the fourth quarter against the Rams, Kmet came up with the big play on Williams’ miraculous fourth-down touchdown pass. But Loveland’s absence was felt in the Bears’ lone overtime possession. That’s how quick injuries can become critically painful. 

3. The sustainability of Williams’ NFL-best seven fourth-quarter comebacks in 2026 is a legitimate point, but a little misleading. The Bears won seven games late, but they also lost five games with a chance to win in the fourth quarter (against the Ravens, Packers at Lambeau, 49ers, Lions at Soldier Field and Rams in the playoffs. That .583 finishing percentage is a little less daunting.

It’s not like the Vikings going 11-0 in one-score games in 2022 (they went 6-8 in 2023 and finished 7-10) or 9-1 in one-score games in 2024 (they dropped to 5-4 and finished 9-8 in 2025). The Bears went 7-4 in one-score games in 2025 (8-5 including the playoffs), not an unsustainable percentage. 

In theory, if Johnson’s offense makes the expected jump in efficiency in 2026, the Bears won’t need fourth-quarter rallies to win games. In theory. 

4. In the first year of Johnson’s offense, the Bears seemed to benefit from their Week 5 bye. It gave them an early opportunity to self-scout and re-set with Benedet replacing Jones at left tackle. 

It paid off when the Bears averaged an NFL-best 170.2 rushing yards in their first 11 games after the bye and went 9-2 — imposing their will on their opponent with a noticeable push-the-pile aggressiveness. 

But playing the final 15 consecutive weeks seemed to take a toll late in the season. The Bears averaged 107 rushing yards in their final four games and rarely pushed the pile — relying on desperation-stage adrenaline to fuel their biggest offensive rallies. The Bears averaged 6.3 offensive points in the first half over their last seven games after averaging 13.6 first-half points in their first 12 games — a full touchdown difference. If the Bears have a chance to request a mid-season bye week in 2026, they should do it.  

5. Not since Devin Hester in 2006 and 2007 have the Bears had a player with a career’s worth of highlight-reel plays in one season like Williams did in 2025. His pinpoint 22-yard touchdown pass to Moore against the Browns evoked memories of Joe Montana’s touchdown pass to Dwight Clark in the 1982 NFC Championship Game against the Cowboys. 

And then Williams outdid that not once but twice — the game-saving fourth-and-eight 27-yard pass to Odunze against the Packers in the wild card game; and of course, the unreal back-pedaling desperation pass from the 40-yard line to Kmet for the tying touchdown with 18 seconds left in the fourth quarter Sunday. It looked like a Hail Mary, yet was officially a 14-yard touchdown pass — that’s how special it was. 

Many times when a quarterback makes a “special” throw, analysts call it a pass few quarterbacks in the world can make, but it’s usually more than they think. But the pass to Kmet in that situation was as special as special gets. An amazing throw and amazing play by a quarterback who becomes more dangerous in desperation. It’s almost like Rams defenders would have been better off just containing Williams instead of chasing him and activating that desperation mode. 

6. The Bears overachieved in Johnson’s first season as head coach — winning 11 games, making the playoffs, winning a playoff game, winning four games despite allowing 23 or more points (after going 0-25 in that scenario in the Eberflus era), the offense improving from 28th to ninth in scoring. 

There was one particular goal that Johnson missed — Williams completing 70% of his passes in 2025. Williams missed it by a mile — in fact, his 58.1% completions in 2025 was significantly worse than his rookie season (62.5%) under Shane Waldron and Thomas Brown. 

That didn’t prevent Williams from taking a big step toward stardom in 2025. His passer rating increased from 87.8 to 90.1. His yards per attempt increased from 6.3 to 6.9. He broke the franchise record for passing yards with 3,942 — his yards per game increased from 208.3 to 231.9. His sacks decreased from 68 to 24. And he led seven winning rallies in the fourth quarter.

That Williams missed the 70% goal by so much is notable. But even if he never reaches the 70% level, Williams figures to improve his accuracy as the offense presumably grows in Johnson’s second season. Jared Goff’s completion percentage improved from 65.1% to 67.3% to 72.4% in his three seasons in Johnson’s offense. 

7. Acquiring wide receiver DJ Moore in a trade for the No. 1 overall pick in 2023 was one of general manager Ryan Poles’ best moves. Finding a taker for Moore after a season of wild fluctuations in Johnson’s offense could be his biggest challenge of a busy offseason for Poles. 

Moore has four years remaining on a four-year, $110 million extension he signed in 2024, but it would not be surprising if Johnson prefers to live without him, with Odunze, Loveland and Burden emerging as productive go-to receivers. 

Moore’s performance against the Rams was typical of his season, if not his career. He caught five passes for 52 yards, including a three-yard touchdown pass. But he also seemed as least partially culpable on Williams’ interception in overtime. Whether or not it was a “miscommunication” — as Williams described it — it was yet another situation where Moore did not appear to give the 100% effort you’d expect in an NFL game.

Moore was a no-show in the post-game locker room media availability and again at locker clean-out Monday — another bad look for a player who seems like a keeper one moment and a player you can’t win with the next. Moore is like a passive-aggressive Brandon Marshall. He’s a talented, productive earnest Pro Bowl-caliber player who wants to win, says the right things, speaks his mind and has the kind of game that makes him invaluable in any offense. 

But he too often finds himself in some odd, mystifying circumstance — walking off the field in the middle of a play, invisible in a productive offense, and seeming to give up on an ill-fated play that required more effort. He had immediate chemistry with a fledgling passer in Justin Fields, but little or no chemistry with a better passer in Williams. It’s confounding. 

Moore had 98 receptions for 966 yards and six touchdowns in Williams’ rookie season in 2024 (down from 96-1,364 and eight touchdowns with Fields in 2023) and dropped to career-lows of 50 receptions and 682 yards, with six touchdowns in Johnson’s offense in 2025. 

The development of other receivers might be one factor in that decline. But not the only one. When Odunze missed the final five games of the regular season with a foot injury, Moore had 12 receptions for 180 yards (and three touchdowns) in those five games. In a situation you’d think he’d step up as a target, Moore had one reception (for minus-4, seven and 11 yards) in three of the five games.

Like Marshall, Moore is a playmaker who always seems to find himself in the wrong place at the wrong time. Marshall made six Pro Bowls but never played on a playoff team. Moore was finally on a playoff team in his eighth NFL season in 2025. But it’s been a roller-coaster ride — the kind where you’re not sure if you had fun or not. Moore had “The Catch” touchdown against the Browns, the game-winner in overtime against the Packers, and touchdowns in both playoff games. He’s come up big. But he’s also come up short. With Odunze, Loveland and Burden all in position to make a bigger impact in 2026, DJ Moore — once a savior of the Bears’ offense — looks more and more like the odd-man out. 

8. Quick Hits: With their divisional-round loss, the Bears have the No. 25 pick in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft. … Even with the return of Dayo Odeyingbo and the emergence of Austin Booker, a pass rusher tops the list of offseason needs. … After a mid-season rut and injury, Cairo Santos made 17 of his last 18 field-goal attempts (starting with the 48-yard game-winner against the Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium) and was 29-of-34 (85.3%) for the season — 5-of-7 from 50-plus. He also was 43-of-43 on PATs. … As it turned out, “Bear Weather” impacted both teams, with a slight edge to the Bears. Matthew Stafford’s 47.6 completion percentage (20 of 42) was his lowest of the season. Williams’ 54.8 completion percentage (23 of 42) was his sixth-lowest of the season. … Rookie Kyle Monangai had 27 carries for 77 yards in the final three games — 2.9 yards per carry. Monangai had 387 of his 850 rushing yards this season (45.5%) in three of his 19 games this season.

9. Josh McCown Ex-Bear of the Week: Patriots defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga, returning after missing three games with a foot injury, sacked C.J. Stroud for an eight-yard loss to force a punt with 4:17 left in the fourth quarter in a 28-16 victory over the Texans. Tonga, a seventh-round draft pick by the Bears in 2021, was cut after his rookie season. 

10. Bear-ometer — 11-6*: vs. Lions (W); at Lions (L); vs. Packers (W); at Packers (L); vs. Vikings (W); at Vikings (W); vs. Buccaneers (W); at Bills (L); vs. Eagles (L); at Dolphins (W); vs. Jaguars (W); at Falcons (W); vs. Jets (W); at Panthers (W); vs. Patriots (L); at Seahawks (L); vs. Saints (W).

*Order of games will be released in May. 

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