The Caleb Williams process – still a matter of if, not when

Bears quarterback Caleb Williams did not play in the preseason opener against the Dolphins on Sunday, but the performance of backups Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum still provided an indication of what to expect from Williams in his first season in Ben Johnson's offense: Set the bar a little lower than you originally had it. Experience matters.

I was among those who thought (feared?) that Bagent, the more technically, fundamentally proficient quarterback, would take immediately to Johnson's offense and have one of those performances like Mitch Trubisky in a back-up role against the Bears with the Bills in 2021 (20-of-28, 221 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 106.4), leading back-to-back touchdown drives against the bulk of the Bears' first-team defense. The situation Sunday just seemed to play to Bagent's strengths.

It wasn't to be. Bagent was OK at best — 13-of-19 for 100 yards, a touchdown and an interception and two sacks for a 77.3 passer rating. It was almost a relief to some hard-bitten Bears fans that Bagent didn't light it up and elicit an annoying, nonsensical debate about which quarterback gives the Bears the best chance to win. (Then again, journeyman Josh McCown was actually — statistically and by the eye test — better than Jay Cutler in 2013, so at some point, it might not be as ridiculous as it sounds today despite the respective pedigree of Bagent and Williams.)

As it turned out, it was the more experienced quarterback who played the best in his debut in Johnson's offense. Keenum, working against Dolphins backups, was the efficiency leader of the day — completing 8-of-10 passes for 80 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions, with one sack, for a 139.6 passer rating. He didn't light it up, and one of his touchdown drives was all of three yards, after an Austin Booker strip sack. But his experience showed.

That seems to make a difference in Johnson's offense — like in any football offense, I guess. Jared Goff, like Williams a No. 1 overall draft pick, had started 88 games — six in the playoffs, including the Super Bowl — when he started in Ben Johnson's offense in 2022. The young quarterbacks who played most of the preseason snaps were, like Bagent, OK at best — David Blough, Tim Boyle, Nate Sudfeld, Adrian Martinez, Hendon Hooker and Jake Fromm combined for a 69.3 rating in the preseason (seven touchdowns, nine interceptions). The best passer rating among Lions backups who threw more than 10 passes in a preseason game was veteran Teddy Bridgewater in 2023 (84.4).

Williams' ceiling, despite the "generational talent" tag he came in with, is still undefined. He's looked no better in his first training camp with Johnson than Trubisky did in his first training camp with Matt Nagy in 2018 or Justin Fields did in his first training camp with Luke Getsy in 2022. It's unlikely to click when the bell rings on Sept. 8. On the contrary, this could be a little more arduous of a process than anybody thought.

And it's not a matter of time. It's still a matter of if, not when, Williams becomes a top-tier quarterback in the NFL. His floor is just a little higher. A disappointing Caleb Williams is still likely to be better than Trubisky or Fields at anything but their best.

Anytime footwork is part of a quarterback's introduction to a system, it's likely going to be a longer haul than you think. And Williams still is learning to master the basic, fundamental functions of Johnson's offense. It's with a touch of irony that he'll have to become Jared Goff to become Caleb Williams Superstar — and reach the elite-level ceiling that almost certainly lured Johnson to the Bears in the first place.

Williams can still succeed if he never masters that part of it. He can lead the Bears to a winning record and even win playoff games — he's that talented. But until further notice, the offense will be the star of Johnson's offense.

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