The annual Bears Optimist/Pessimist Test
- Mark Potash
- Sep 1
- 2 min read
The Bears are always compelling in September but especially this year, when optimism about Ben Johnson's impact with 2024 No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams and other upgrade acquired specifically for Johnson's offense clashing with the Bears' poor history — only one winning season in the last 12, since Lovie Smith was fired after the 2012 season.
On paper, I still argue that there's more reason for optimism in a head coach's debut under Johnson than any Bears' first-year coach since Mike Ditka was fired after the 1992 season. He has better NFL credentials than either Marc Trestman or Matt Nagy. And while Dave Wannstedt, Lovie Smith and John Fox all were highly regarded hires, they were defensive coaches who had much less control over two parts of the equation that determine success — the quarterback and the offense.
That said, it's uncanny how no matter how optimistic things seem in the offseason, there is always room for doubt. A coach unable to name his starting left tackle less than a week before Week 1 begins is kind of a red flag. That Caleb Williams and the offense only had success against back-ups in the preseason inspires doubt more than confidence — depending on which outlet you get your Bears fix from. Jaylon Johnson's offseason injury that cost him the entire training camp/preseason of preparation (and likely Week 1) is dubious until he proves it is not.
With the upgrades and the hiccups, I have more confidence in the raised floor than the raised ceiling. Barring an unusual (or usual) spate of injuries, even if Williams and the Bears are disappointing this season, it's less likely they'll be 5-12, 4-13, 3-14 disappointing like they've been. Just finishing with the arrow pointing up is a reasonable (if tiresome) bar for 2025.
As always with the Bears, it could go either way. Which side are you on? My annual optimist/pessimist test will help determine just how bullish (or Bearish) you are on the 2025 season:
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