Pacers' best hope for an NBA Finals upset? Rick Carlisle

The Indiana Pacers are big underdogs (+500) against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the NBA Finals that begin Thursday night in Oklahoma City, but let's wait and see if Rick Carlisle has anything up his sleeve before crowning the Thunder.

Carlisle might be the Pacers' biggest x-factor heading into the series. He's one of the best coaches in the NBA, and has a team with balance and depth that gives him something to work with, even against a prohibitive favorite. The Jordan Bulls, Kobe Lakers, Tim Duncan Spurs or Steph Curry Warriors might swat Carlisle's team like a fly. But against a talented team like the Thunder that has yet to prove its championship mettle, Carlisle's Pacers go in with a better shot than you might think.

Maybe this is the Thunder's coming-of-age moment that fuels a dominant run of multiple championships. But Carlisle's Pacers have won four of five series as an underdog the last two seasons, with the only loss as a No. 6 seed against the No. 1 seed Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals last season. In fact, when the seed-differential is four or less (6 vs. 2, 5 vs. 1, etc.), Carlisle teams are 8-5 in the playoffs. The Thunder are the No. 1 seed in the West. The Pacers are the No. 4 seed in the East.

The last time Carlisle was in the Finals, the Mavericks — the No. 3 seed in the West — were +155 underdogs in 2011 against the Heat with LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in their first season together. The Mavericks upset the Heat in six games, with Carlisle pushing all the right buttons.

Rick Carlisle's Dallas Mavericks upset LeBron James and the Miami Heat in six games in 2011.

Oh for the days when the Sun-Times covered the NBA Finals even if the Bulls weren't in it.

With three point guards at his disposal — Jason Kidd, Jason Terry and J.J Barea — Carlisle had two of them on the floor most of the time and effectively controlled the tempo and prevented the Heat from patented LeBron-fueled big runs. James, who had averaged 28.5 points in four consecutive victories over Tom Thibodeau's Bulls in the Eastern Conference Finals, averaged 17.8 points in six games against the Pacers. In Games 4-5, James was held to eight points (the second fewest in 240 career playoff games) and 17 points, shooting a combined 11-for-30 from the field, 0-for-7 on three-point attempts.

Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle said beating LeBron and the heat was "a colossal statement — not just about our team, but the game in general. Playing it a certain way. Trusting the pass. Playing collectively. Believing in each other."

One factor in LeBron James' subpar series vs. the Mavericks: The referees didn't cut him any slack like they usually do for superstars — curiously after LeBron duped referee Marc Davis into calling a foul on Derrick Rose in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Bulls.

Carlisle is not infallible. He's 83-83 in the playoffs overall. And early in his coaching career he regularly lost playoff series with home-court advantage and suffered the same fate as Thibodeau with the Knicks this year. After revitalizing the Pistons in 2001-02, Carlisle was fired after losing in the playoffs with home-court advantage against the Celtics (4-1) in the second round in 2002 and against the Nets (4-0) in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2003. (The Pistons hired Larry Brown and won it all the next season.)

But Carlisle became a better playoff coach for it, and seems to have better luck as an underdog than a favorite. This on paper is a bigger challenge than against the Heat in 2011 — the Thunder look primed to take the next step. But Rick Carlisle is a factor until the Thunder proves he isn't.