1st-and-10: Optimism trumps pessimism in Bears' new world

"Never underestimate the mediocrity of the NFL."

The Bears are predicted by some analysts to be victims of that mantra in 2026, but instead could be the beneficiaries. The difference? Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams – a head coach/quarterback combination that allows teams like the Rams and 49ers to stay ahead of the curve of NFL parity.

The Bears have their share of flaws, but almost every team in the NFL has flaws and is just as vulnerable. And while defense wins championships, in the regular season in today's NFL, a well-conceived offense with a clever coordinator and inventive quarterback gives you a chance every week in a parity-wracked league.

Yes, the Bears are unlikely to win seven games in which they trail in the final two minutes like they did in 2025. But for the first time in modern Bears history, it's not a pipe dream to suggest that they won't need to, if Williams makes even modest improvement in his second season in Johnson's offense. It remains to be seen if Williams takes the giant leap toward "elite" status, but in Johnson's offense, modest improvement from 2025 will make a significant difference. That's a big difference from the Jay Cutler era, when modest improvement in anyone's offense made little difference, or faded quickly.

Johnson has changed things at Halas Hall that much in one season. Matt Nagy's second season in 2019 was the beginning of the end after a successful debut, but Johnson is playing with a much stronger hand — an offense that is real and sustainable, with a better quarterback and much more evidence that his play calling makes a difference, makes every player better and can stay ahead of the league.

So even factoring in some regression from 2025, I still picked the Bears to go 11-7 (and head into 2027 with the big-picture arrow pointing up) on "Sports Collecting with Tom Morgan" on ESPN 1000 (Saturday mornings at 7 a.m.) at the start of training camp. Training camp and the preseason did nothing to quell any fears, especially — the loss of safety Coby Bryant, the mysterious absence of cornerback Kyler Gordon, the trade of defensive tackle Gervon Dexter and standing pat at edge rusher. But when Tom called this week to ask for an update prediction heading into Sunday's regular-season opener against the Panthers in Charlotte, I stayed at 11-6.

I believe in Ben Johnson. And I never underestimate the mediocrity of the NFL.

2. Dennis Allen's defense is obviously the biggest x-factor for the Bears entering the regular season. It's one thing to say the Bears won't have to repeat their seven come-from-behind victories because the offense will win games earlier in the second season of Johnson's offense. But finding a way to survive on defense without 33 takeaways is another, especially with a pass rush that on paper is no better than it was last season.

Still, Allen has his own history of getting the most out of players who are acquired for his defense, and eight of the Bears' 12 starters (including the nickel back) will be players acquired since Allen became the defensive coordinator in 2025. (With four pretty effective Matt Eberflus-era holdovers: defensive end Montez Sweat, linebacker T.J. Edwards and cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson and Tyrique Stevenson.)

Rookie defensive tackle Jordan van den Berg, a sixth-round draft pick, was the revelation of training camp and the preseason. It's often difficult to project the regular-season effectiveness of a player who has done his most impressive game work against back-ups at preseason-game speed — we've been fooled so many times before. But just like with Vic Fangio's defense, any player hand-picked for a Dennis Allen defense has a chance to be as good as the hype or even exceed it.

If the Bears' offense is as good as expected in Year 2, Allen's defense doesn't have to be good, just good enough — at least in the regular season. With the bar already set low, and with rookie safety Dillon Thieneman an x-factor, the Bears' defense will probably be better than expected. It's up to Dennis Allen to make sure it's good when it has to be.

3. Despite the Thieneman and van den Berg hype, what happens in Johnson's offense in the preseason is more likely to translate to the regular season, so my rookie pick to click is third round tight end Sam Roush.

He's unlikely to play a starring role with tight ends Colston Loveland and Cole Kmet, but he was hand-picked for Johnson's offense (and much earlier than projected, for whatever that's worth) and already looks like a player who could be a bigger weapon in the NFL than in college, working in a productive offense. He could be their Sam Antonacci, a player who does the little things in a very noticeable fashion.

4. You can't address "picks to click" in a Ben Johnson offense without a mention of wide receiver Zavion Thomas. Players with that kind of speed always mesmerize fans, who end up disappointed. But in this offense, anything is possible, and Thomas showed that on his very first play in the preseason — a 97-yard touchdown pass from backup quarterback Tyson Bagent.

That kind of preseason magic often is fool's gold, but in a good offense with a good quarterback, speed is universal — it can beat even starting NFL defensive backs. Unless Thomas is completely overwhelmed by regular-season game speed, he could become Johnson's favorite toy sooner rather than later.

5. Thomas's speed seems tailor made for a quarterback like Williams, an escape artist who still is perfecting the art of finding the open man downfield when he scrambles. Thomas often makes than an easier task, like Tyreek Hill did for Patrick Mahomes with the Chiefs. It's too early to compare Thomas to Hill, but let the record show that Hill was an even more modest prospect in 2017 — drafted lower than Thomas (fifth round in 2017) with no better speed than Thomas (a 4.29 40 at his Pro Day compared to Thomas's 4.28 at the scouting combine).

The key factor is chemistry with the quarterback, which Johnson made a point of emphasis for Williams in 2026 in his season-ending press conference in January. Though DJ Moore made several big plays, the lack of true chemistry with Williams likely was a factor in Moore being traded to the Bills in the offseason.

That was apparently evident on the most fateful play of the season — Williams' interception in overtime against the Rams when Moore and Williams "miscommunicated" in a critical moment. We never did get an answer from Johnson whether Moore had the latitude of flattening his route into an open area underneath Rams safety Kam Curl. Regardless, the lack of true chemistry surely played a role in trading such a productive player.

6. The trade of Dexter to the Falcons for cornerback Clark Phillips and a 2027 fifth-round draft pick leaves general manager Ryan Poles with just one of his seven Day 2 draft picks from the pre-Johnson era on the 53-man roster — cornerback Tyrique Stevenson (second round, No. 56 in 2023). Gordon (2-39 in 2022) is on the PUP (physically unable to perform) list.

The others: safety Jaquan Brisker (2-48) was let go in free agency; wide receiver Velus Jones (3-71 in 2022) was cut seven weeks into the 2024 season; defensive tackle Zacch Pickens (3-64 in 2023) was waived in the cutdown to 53 in 2025; and offensive tackle Kiran Amegadjie (3-75 in 2024) was waived in the cutdown to 53 last month.

You're not going to hit on every pick, of course, but that's a disappointing return on Day 2 draft picks. The only player to get a second contract is Gordon, who has played three games since signing a three-year, $40 million extension in April of 2025.

Poles defended his draft record, pointing to first round picks (right tackle Darnell Wright, Williams, wide receiver Rome Odunze and Loveland); and also his success with late-round picks and undrafted free agents: running back Kyle Monangai (7-233 in 2025), Bagent, offensive tackle Theo Benedet and wide receiver Jahdae Walker). Fair enough. But every one of those success stories plays on offense, where the wind is at Poles' back with Johnson around. Poles will get his due credit when his picks for Allen's defense provide similar dividends.

7. The Bears seem totally mystified — if not out-and-out miffed — by Gordon's absence. This is one of those times where the Bears might benefit by making a player available to the media while he's not active. Assuming the Bears aren't at war with Gordon, reporters could have a conversation with Gordon that the Bears might not be as willing to have. Either way, Bears fans deserve more answers than they're getting regarding Gordon's injury and absence.

8. Knock on Wood Dept.: Caleb Williams enters the 2026 season with 36 consecutive starts (including playoffs) — third on the Bears' all-time list behind Bob Avellini (43 games) and Bill Wade (38 games). If he continues to start every game, Williams would break Avellini's record against the Seahawks on Monday Night Football on Nov. 2 at Seattle Stadium.

For what it's worth, the Bears' record of 43 consecutive quarterback starts is tied for the lowest franchise mark in the NFL, with the rival Vikings. Fran Tarkenton's 43 consecutive starts (including playoffs) from 1972-74 is their franchise mark.

9. Ex-Bears Player of the Week: Giants wide receiver Darnell Mooney, hoping to revive his NFL career where it started — in Matt Nagy's offense — is expected to start for the Giants against the Cowboys on Sunday night at the Meadowlands.

Mooney, a fifth-round draft pick in 2020, blossomed in Nagy's offense with the Bears, with 81 receptions for 1,055 yards and four touchdowns with Justin Fields and Andy Dalton in 2021. He had 64 receptions for 992 yards and five touchdowns in his first season with the Falcons in 2024 (missing the final game with an injury), but slumped to 32 receptions for 443 yards and one touchdown last season. He signed with the Giants as a free agent.

10. Bear-ometer: 11-6 — at Panthers (W); vs. Vikings (W); vs. Eagles (L); vs. Jets (W); at Packers (L); at Falcons (W); vs. Patriots (W); at Seahawks (L); vs. Buccaneers (W); vs. Saints (W); at Lions (L); vs. Jaguars (L); at Dolphins (W); at Bills (L); vs. Packers (W); vs. Lions (W); at Vikings (W).

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