Matt Nagy's worst fear realized — seven years later

Do we owe Matt Nagy an apology? In 2019 against the Chargers at Soldier Field, Nagy was excoriated for having Mitch Trubisky take knee on first-and-10 at the Chargers 41 in the final minute of the fourth quarter to set up kicker Eddy Pineiro for a 41-yard field goal that would have won the game on the final play. Instead, the Bears lost 17-16 when Pineiro's kick sailed wide left as time expired. If he had only been closer, was the outcry

The criticism that Nagy played it too safe when he could have run a play to get Pineiro closer to chip-shot range seemed fair at the time. Pineiro was a rookie who had missed a 33-yard field goal attempt in the first quarter when it hit the right upright. The closer the better seemed prudent, with a sure-handed running back in David Montgomery, who was having a big day — 27 carries for 135 yards and a touchdown. (For the record, Montgomery had lost a fumble the previous week against the Saints, but in general was dependable with regard to ball security.)

Asked why he did not try to get closer for Pineiro's kick, Nagy was resolute if not defiant. “I had zero thought of running the ball and not kicking it," he told reporters. "The chance of fumbling the football, or they know you’re running the football, so you lose three, four yards. That wasn’t even in our process as coaches to think about that.”

It was at least a bit of second-guessing, but that explanation didn't fly with the media or the masses. It seemed odd that a progressive coach like Nagy would suddenly be worried about the worst-case scenario in a big moment. How often does a runner fumble when his No. 1 priority on the play is to not fumble?

As it turned out, that was just one incident in a series of red-flag episodes in the first half of Nagy's second season that portended his demise. The Bears, 12-4 in Nagy's first season were never the same, including the 8-8 playoff season in 2020, and Nagy was fired with a 34-31 record after going 6-11 in 2021.

Fast forward seven years from that 2019 Chargers game, and Nagy found himself in a similar situation as the Giants' offensive coordinator last Sunday. In a 27-27 tie with the Commanders, the Giants had a first-and-10 at the Commanders' 24-yard-line in what had become sudden-death overtime.

With a rookie kicker in Dominic Zvada, who had already missed two field goals earlier in the game (but from 50, 57 and 46 yards), coach John Harbaugh played it just like Bears fans wanted Nagy to play it against the Chargers in 2019 — "Run it twice, and then run it down, get as close as we could, protect the football, which we talked about numerous times," Harbaugh said. "And then run it down and take the knee."

Only this time, Nagy's 2019 fears were realized. Running back Cam Skattebo, who had gained 19, 9 and 5 yards on three previous carries in that drive, fumbled on a run up the middle and the Commanders recovered and preserved the tie by discombobulating in even more reckless fashion moments later when quarterback Jayden Daniels inexplicably took a sack at the Giants' 24-yard-line with eight seconds left in overtime and no time outs remaining.

And the outcry was the exact opposite of Bears fans and media in 2019 — the Giants should have taken a knee and just kicked the 43-yard field goal.

In retrospect, while the criticism of Nagy in 2019 was legitimate, I think Nagy was victimized by the negative outcome (I'm guilty as charged!). Even a rookie kicker should make a 41-yard field goal in a game-winning situation. And Nagy's argument also was legitimate — with the Chargers loading up for a run, gaining even a couple of extra yards to give Pineiro more margin for error was not a sure thing.

His cautious decision in 2019 was far from a bonehead call (one that would fail most of the time), just one that blew up in his face. Sometimes, you just can't win. In Week 3, Cowboys coach Brian Schottenheimer was ripped for kicking off out of the end zone after a tying field goal against the Ravens with seven seconds left in the fourth quarter — preserving time for Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson to throw a 27-yard pass to Zay Flowers that set up Tyler Loop's 56-yard field goal as time expired to win the game.

In a similar situation last Sunday in the Eagles-Jaguars game at Tottenham Stadium in London. Up 17-16 with eight seconds left in the fourth quarter — Eagles coach Nick Sirianni did what Cowboys fans wanted Schottenheimer to do and kicked the ball in play so a return would used up the clock. But it backfired on Sirianni as well. Jaguars returner Ameer Abdullah returned the kickoff 53 yards to the Eagles' 39-yard-line with one second left (barely!) and Cam Little kicked a 57-yard field goal as time expired to win the game, 19-17.

A similar you-just-can't-win scenario ensued Wednesday night in Game 3 of the Dodgers-Brewers National League Championship Series at Dodgers Stadium. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts stayed with starter Blake Snell two batters too long with a 2-1 lead in the seventh inning, and Jake Bauers (two-run shot) and Garrett Mitchell hit home runs off Snell to lead the Brewers to a a 6-2 victory.

Roberts' ill-fated decision to stay with Snell was the polar opposite of Rays manager Kevin Cash's decision to pull Snell too early in Game 6 of the 2020 World Series against the Dodgers. Cash was criticized for playing the analytics game and pulling Snell with a 1-0 lead after Snell had allowed a single to Austin Barnes with one out in the sixth inning. Snell had been cruising to that moment — allowing one hit and retiring 10 consecutive batters before Barnes' single. He had thrown just 73 pitches. But even in the biggest moment of their season, Cash followed "the book" and pulled Snell. Reliever Nick Anderson imploded and the Dodgers scored two runs to take a 2-1 and eventually won 3-1 to clinch the World Series.

Some people think Roberts staying with Snell and losing against the Brewers exonerated Cash, but I don't think so. In 2020 Snell was cruising and had thrown just 73 pitches — a single was hardly an indication he was losing his good stuff. Against the Brewers, Snell also was cruising into the seventh inning — allowing just two hits, retiring the previous 14 batters and throwing 81 pitches.

But he did not react well after the Dodgers rallied in the bottom of the sixth inning to take a 2-1 lead. Given a new chance to win a big game, Snell walked leadoff batter Andrew Vaughn in the top of the seventh inning — a sign of fatigue in my book, but certainly not a universal one. With the left-handed hitting Bauers up, Roberts stayed with Snell and Bauers just wore him down in an 11-pitch at-bat. If Roberts made an egregious mistake, it was sticking with Snell for yet another batter, and Mitchell homered for an all-important insurance run. There's no defending that.

In all three of those episodes — Nagy, Schottenheimer, Roberts — there wasn't a bonehead move made, just one (or two) that backfired. That's why those guys get paid the big bucks. Coaching (or managing) is harder than it looks, because so many moves are 50-50 calls that often put you at the whim of the sporting gods.

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