Doubts aside, Bears in better shape with Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson — but Sept. 8 can't get here soon enough

It's uncanny how no matter how hard the Bears try to solve their chronic — and I mean chronic — quarterback quandary, they always enter the season with some kind of trepidation.

Caleb Williams, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 draft, under the guidance of Ben Johnson, the hottest offensive guru in the 2025 NFL hiring cycle, should be a no-brainer and still might turn out that way. But the Bears enter the 2025 regular season with at least a touch of uncertainty after Williams had a preseason in which most of his success came against second-team defenses.

And it's not just fans and skeptical reporters who are initiating that doubt. None other than Johnson himself fanned the flames of doubt when he expressed by frustration with Williams and the offense after the Bears had a fumbled handoff on the first offensive play and had just one first down against the Chiefs' starting defense.

"It is disappointing to me offensively for sure because I thought we kind of worked our way out of that," Johnson told reporters after the game on Friday night. "I am still learning this group as well."

It sounded like Johnson got his first inkling that developing Williams into the elite quarterback Johnson thinks he can be ("I want this job.") might take a little longer than he thought. And that jibes with any objective analysis of Williams after his rookie season. He's a potentially great quarterback, but he's not an "it" factor guy. He doesn't play on instinct. He needs Ben Johnson more than Ben Johnson needs him.

And the all-too-typical Bears/quarterback/offense preseason was complete with backup Tyson Bagent rallied the Bears to victory against Chiefs backups, breathing life into what should be a nonexistent narrative — that Bagent and not Williams is the best quarterback for the Bears in Johnson's offense. Yikes!

At this point, that notion is folly. But with Bagent riding a wave of popularity after signing a two-year, $10 million contract extension in a storybook event at Halas Hall last week and Williams showing flaws that might be easily remedied under Johnson but also are flaws that have doomed previous Bears quarterbacks, it can't be dismissed as easily as it should be.

We're just three years removed from Brock Purdy, Mr. Irrelevant in the 2022 draft, beating out No. 3 overall pick Trey Lance as the 49ers starting quarterback — under an offensive coordinator even more accomplished than Johnson in Kyle Shanahan. So it's not unheard of.

And let the record show that of all the Bears quarterbacks who have started five or more games in a season (not a token sample size), the two at the top of the list in efficiency are Josh McCown and Brian Hoyer — back-ups to Jay Cutler, the Bears' best quarterback since the Ditka era and their all-time leader in passing yards and touchdowns.

McCown had a 103.0 passer rating (13 touchdowns, one interception) in place of Jay Cutler in 2013. (McCown threw 224 passes, enough to officially qualify for the NFL leader board). Hoyer had a 98.0 passer rating (six touchdowns, no interceptions) in six games (five starts) in place of Cutler in 2016. In fact, his 1,318 passing yards in the four starts that he complete — the most by a Bears quarterback in a four-game span since the 1970 merger.

So Tyson Bagent emerging as the starting quarterback, as uncomfortable of a notion as it is, wouldn't be that crazy of a story. But don't bet on it. Johnson already is laying the groundwork for Caleb Williams and the offense as a work-in-progress developmental project in 2025. Barring some bizarre implosion, the only way Williams doesn't take every meaningful snap this season is because of injury (the opening that Purdy needed with the 49ers in 2022).

If anything, Johnson is preparing himself for the possibility that he gave Williams and the offense too much too soon — something he was quick to acknowledge with rookie offensive tackle Ozzy Trapilo and the experiment at left tackle that lasted all of three weeks.

"To be honest with you, we might have to ebb and flow a little bit after that opening game. Usually, it will take up until the bye week. I think it is placed at just the right time (Week 5, usually too early for established teams) to identify who we are and what we are going to be for the rest of the season."

That's all well and good, especially with a second-year quarterback. With a veteran in Jared Goff in 2022, Johnson's offense with the Lions averaged 34.5 points in the first four games, scoring 24 or more points in each game (For the record, the Bears have never averaged 34 offensive points in the first four games of a season in franchise history.) But the Lions also averaged 164 rushing yards in that span, with D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams at running back.

So the key indicator in the early going might be the offensive line more than Williams. Swift had 15 carries for 144 yards and a touchdown in his first game in Johnson's offense with the Lions — behind an offensive line with three players in new positions from the previous season. Seems like a fair bar to set for Johnson's offense with the Bears.

Be that as it may, the Bears with Williams and Johnson are still in better position heading into the opener than their respective predecessors. Williams is a getter quarterback prospect than Mitch Trubisky or Justin Fields. Johnson has a better track record than Matt Nagy or Matt Eberflus.

The ceiling is undefined, but the floor has been raised. Even if Williams is a disappointment or a work in progress, he'll very likely still be capable of winning games, including playoff games. He just might leave you wanting, or expecting, more. That's progress around these parts.