Caleb Williams' 'ceiling' is Ben Johnson

Pro Football Focus ruined a perfectly nice summer day on the hammock by publishing a story analyzing the ceiling and floor for all the second-year quarterbacks in the NFL heading into the 2025 season — including, of course, Bears' quarterback Caleb Williams. According to PFF writer John Kosko, Williams' ceiling is Jordan Love; his floor is "bust." Oh, the humanity!

Even in the sleepy part of the offseason — maybe because it's the sleepy part of the offseason — it predictably provoked a debate and reaction. Erik Lambert of Sports Mockery called it "An Incredibly Offensive Insult." Clay Harbor of CHSN's "The Big Pro Football Show" with David Haugh was incredulous (and not wrong). "He's already proven that he's not a bust," Harbor said. "If Caleb doesn't get any better than he was last year — just based off of his coaching, his offensive coordinator, his offensive line, his weapons — he will be better. Even if he stays the same."

Here's what all the fuss was about:

You can quibble with the Jordan Love comp — Love's own ceiling has a pretty big variance, so that isn't very defining. And considering the tumult around him — coaching changes, the offensive line — Williams' rookie season more likely is arrow-up than arrow-down for a No. 1 overall pick.

Be that as it may, you can't blame anyone for a sober evaluation of a Bears quarterback. With their decades-long history of developing quarterbacks and offenses, skepticism is the default analysis. Bill Walsh in his prime could be the first-year Bears coach in 2025 and, regardless of how promising that would be with Williams at quarterback, you still have to see it to believe it. Even if it is an offensive insult, the Bears have earned it. What have they done to deserve the benefit of the doubt?

When Ben Johnson told the Bears "I want this job," before his virtual interview even began in January, the opportunity to develop quarterback Caleb Williams likely was a big reason.

Any evaluation of the Bears' offense or any player in that offense is null and void until we see the Ben Johnson Effect. Jared Goff's PFF grade was 61.7 in 2021 before Ben Johnson got his hands on him. It was 81.8 last season, his third in Johnson's offense.

Same thing with wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. His pre-Johnson rating (2021) was 76.7 — 24th among NFL wide receivers. Last year it was 88.1 — sixth among NFL wide receivers. Virtually every key player in the Lions' offense flourished when Johnson was running it. Guard Kevin Zeitler came from the Ravens with a 71.6 rating by PFF in 2023. His PFF rating in his lone season in Johnson's offense in 2024 was 86.5 — ninth among guards in the NFL.

(And those 2021 Lions ratings were boosted by a second-half surge that Johnson had a hand in when he was unofficially the passing-game coordinator after offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn was demoted after eight games in 2021. Goff's passer rating went from 85.3 (eight touchdowns, six interceptions) with Lynn to 101.3 (11 touchdowns, two interceptions) with Dan Campbell calling plays and Johnson having a bigger hand in the Lions' offense. St. Brown averaged 31.3 receiving yards per game with no touchdowns with Lynn; he averaged 73.6 yards per game with five touchdowns with Campbell/Johnson.)

Ben Johnson was promoted to offensive coordinator by coach Dan Campbell in 2022, but he initially made an impact as the "pseudo pass game coordinator" in 2021 after OC Anthony Lynn was demoted after eight games. The Lions, who averaged 16.8 points in their first eight games, averaged 25.2 points in their final five games that season.

It remains to be seen if Johnson can have the same impact with the Bears as he had with the Lions. But the talent he has with the Bears in 2024 is at least comparable to what he inherited with the Lions in 2022. PFF ranked the Lions' offensive roster 22nd heading into the 2021 season. It ranked them sixth after the season. So until we see what Ben Johnson can do with the Bears, all the ratings and rankings and ceilings and floors mean nothing.

Pro Football Focus's ratings of Lions offensive starters heading into the 2022 season — Ben Johnson's first as offensive coordinator.

Pro Football Focus's ratings of Lions offensive starters heading into the 2025 season — off of Ben Johnson's third season as offensive coordinator.