Bears-Vikings prediction: And the winner is ...

Bears, 29-24

The Bears' offense probably won't be as prolific against a Brian Flores defense with a game under its belt, and likely in rainy conditions, but it will still be effective. And the Bears' defense figures to improve in Week 2 and continue the theme of 2026 — it doesn't have to be good, just good enough.

Key matchup

The chess match between Bears quarterback Caleb Williams and Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores is center-stage as it should be. Last year, Williams had a 78.1 passer rating in two games against the Vikings – 21 of 35 for 210 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions in a 27-24 loss in the opener; 16 of 32 for 193 yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions in a 19-17 victory at U.S. Bank Stadium.

Year 2 in Johnson's offense is a huge measurement of Williams' career trajectory, but arguably never more than in his matchups against Flores' defense. While Flores still is the respected and proven defensive play caller he's always been, Williams is improving and — if he's on his way toward elite status — should at some point get the upper hand.

It's like Josh Allen against DeMeco Ryans and the Texans. Ryans had the upper hand in matchups in 2024 (56.4 rating, 9-of-30 passing for 131 yards) and 2025 (67.4 rating, no touchdowns, two interceptions). But last week, Allen had a breakthrough game against Ryans and the Texans — completing 20-of-29 passes for 334 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions for a 130.5 rating in a 36-31 road victory.

Allen's yards per pass attempt went from 4.4 in 2024 to 7.4 in 2025 to 11.5 last week. Williams doesn't have Allen's experience, but he does have similar talent and moxie. Last week, Williams took one small but not insignificant step toward the coveted "Josh Allen comp" when he broke the 70% completion barrier for the first time under Ben Johnson last week (72.4% on 21 of 29 passing). This week is another opportunity to show he's on that elite quarterback trajectory.

The x-factor

It's expected to be rainy and a bit windy at Soldier Field for Sunday's game. Those aren't ideal conditions for Johnson's offense, but hardly debilitating. The Bears have a strong running game and had 39 carries for 291 yards (7.5 average) and six touchdowns against the Panthers last week. Running backs D'Andre Swift (18-124, 3 TDs) and Kyle Monangai (10-100, 1 TD) each rushed for 100 yards or more.

The Vikings held the Packers to 66 rushing yards on 21 carries (3.1 average) in a 39-22 victory at U.S. Bank Stadium last week. But the Packers were without starter Josh Jacobs and instead relied on MarShawn Lloyd (13 carries, 37 yards in his second NFL game) and Chris Brooks (7-29).

Pick to click

Tight end Colston Loveland, who led Bears receivers in receptions, yards and touchdowns last season, noticeably had no receptions in the Bears' 59-37 rout of the Panthers last week. As a rookie last season, Loveland was held without a catch only one time, and that was in Week 2 against the Lions. Getting Loveland involved — and keeping everyone happy in a high-scoring offense — figures to be an emphasis in Week 2, even if conditions force the Bears into a more ground-oriented game.

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