Bears +6.5 — a missed opportunity?

When reigning NBA Most Valuable Player Derrick Rose suffered a devastating knee injury in the first round of the playoffs in 2012, I wrote a column in the Sun-Times imploring him to avoid the temptation to rush back.

"If Rose is ever ahead of schedule, here's some layman's advice for his doctors: Don't tell him," I wrote. "Don't give Rose anything that's going to encourage him to come back sooner than he should."

It seemed like sound advice at the time, but it was completely wrong. In fact, reality turned out to be the complete opposite. Rose's rehab from his torn ACL was painfully laborious and drawn out. He was participating in 5-on-5, full-court scrimmages in February of 2013 — and still did not play that season, which ended in April. There was a mental hump Rose struggled to get over. Even when he returned, he wasn't dunking, even though he physically could. (And if you are familiar with Rose's game, you know that's a red flag.)

When Derrick Rose suffered a knee injury in the 2012 playoffs, I implored him to "Take. Your. Time." is is return. He did that, and then some.

With the experience in mind, I should have had an inkling that Lamar Jackson was not going to start for the Ravens against the Bears on Sunday. The two-time MVP doesn't get hurt often, but has a history of complications that muddle his return when he does get injured. In 2021, Jackson suffered an ankle injury against the Browns in Week 14 — and never returned as the Ravens not only lost to the Browns, but their last four games to finish 8-9 and out of the playoffs.

In 2022, Jackson suffered a knee injury in Week 13 against the Broncos and was "week to week" according to coach John Harbaugh. Jackson not only missed the final five games of the regular season, but also the Ravens' wild-card game against the Bengals, which they lost 24-17 when back-up Tyler Huntley fumbled at the goal line while reaching to break the plane in the fourth quarter and Bengals defensive end Sam Hubbard returned it 98 yards for a touchdown that held up. It turned out, according to Jackson, that he had suffered "a PCL grade 2 strain on the borderline of a [Grade] 3."

Injuries happen in football, and you can't disparage someone for getting injured. But some players heal faster than others, and, at the least, Lamar Jackson is not a quick healer. If there was an upset already this week in the NFL, it's that the 1-5 Ravens were listed as 6.5-point favorites over the 4-2 Bears — a line that clearly presumed Jackson would play. It should have been just the opposite — "we'll believe it when we see it."

Sure enough, Jackson's status was a mystery all week. Jackson was "limited" in practice Wednesday and Thursday and initially listed as a full participant on Friday, with NFL Network insider Tom Pelissero tweeting, "All signs pointing towards Lamar Jackson returning to action Sunday vs. Chicago."

If that seemed too good to be true for Ravens fans, they were right. Early Saturday, the Ravens revised their Friday injury report — Jackson in fact did not have full participation. He was running the scout team, which by NFL rules is automatically "limited" participation for a starting player. And Jackson in fact will not play against the Bears on Sunday. The line went from Ravens -6.5 to Ravens -1.5 — a five-point difference that should probably be greater.

In retrospect, it was foolish to presume that Jackson would play. He has a history of drawn-out returns from injury. It's a hamstring, which is notorious for being aggravated on return. And the Ravens play Thursday against the Dolphins. Instead of Jackson playing twice in five days, he could get more time to get healthy and be better prepared to play the Dolphins on Thursday night. It just makes more sense.

It does now anyway. So those who took the Bears +6.5 earlier this week are looking pretty good. This seemingly fortuitous situation has blown up more than once — like in 2022 when current Ravens quarterback Cooper Rush replaced Dak Prescott at the last minute against the Vikings at U.S. Bank. The Cowboys went from 1.5-point favorites to 3-point underdogs — and Rush led the Cowboys to a 20-16 victory.

But five free points should never be passed up. If the Bears don't cover in this one — they should win outright — it's an ass-kicking you just had to take.

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