Bear weather? With Ben Johnson, anything is possible

The Ben Johnson Effect has been undeniable this season.

• The Bears beat the Packers twice in three tries — including the wild-card playoff game last week with a stunning fourth-quarter rally the Packers and Aaron Rodgers usually pull off against the Bears.

• The Bears' offense improved from 28th to ninth this season and won games despite allowing 23 or more points after going 0-25 when allowing 23 or more points in the Matt Eberflus era.

• The Bears, who didn't know how to win under Matt Eberflus, have won seven games with fourth-quarter rallies.

• Rookies Colston Loveland, Kyle Monangai, Luther Burden and Ozzy Trapilo have been productive players.

• Even Johnson's most quantifiable failure — quarterback Caleb Williams missing the 70% completion goal by a mile (58.1%) — did not prevent an overall success. Williams, despite his inaccuracy (not always his fault), clearly established himself as the franchise quarterback the Bears have been looking for.

And Johnson's impact extends to the football gods. A year after the Fail Mary against the Commanders greased the skids for an unprecedented fall — with both offensive coordinator Shane Waldron and Eberflus fired during the season — the Bears benefitted from the bounce of the ball throughout the season.

Jayden Daniels, who threw the Hail Mary touchdown last year, botched a shotgun snap for a fumble that led to a Bears rally to victory. Malik Willis botched a snap in overtime in the regular-season victory against the Packers at Soldier Field. Jordan Love dropped a shotgun snap with seven seconds to go last week in the playoff game — eliminating the Packers' plan of running two plays in that sequence and forcing a harried final play that ended with an incompletion. And even on that play, cornerback Kyler Gordon dropped an interception in the end zone. In the Aaron Rodgers era, Gordon deflects the ball up instead of down and it's caught by a Packer for a miraculous game-winning touchdown.

And that list doesn't include other fortuitous plays the Bears made that are a credit to them but also rarely happen — the blocked field goal at the end of the victory over the Raiders; the onside kick recovery against the Packers; Devin Duvernay returning a kickoff 56 yards against the Vikings when the Vikings knew that was about the only way they could lose; a Bengals defender inadvertently bouncing a teammate off the play for a double missed-tackle that sprung Loveland for a game-winning 58-yard touchdown.

And even with their share of injuries this season, the Bears' avoided the devastating ones that alter a season). The Packers lost Micah Parsons. The Bears lost Dayo Odeyingbo. The Chargers lost Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt. The Bears lost Braxton Jones and Ozzy Trapilo — their four best offensive linemen have played 99.5% of the offensive snaps in 14 games since the bye.

And then there's good timing. The Bears faced Tyler Huntley instead of Lamar Jackson (and still lost); Joe Flacco instead of Joe Burrow; Mason Rudolph instead of Aaron Rodgers; and for that matter, Spencer Rattler instead of Tyler Shough, who won four consecutive games late in the season and had a better passer rating as a starter (95.8) than Williams (90.1).

Even without a Super Bowl berth, Johnson has — until further notice — eclipsed Lovie Smith as the Bears' best coach since Mike Ditka, who guided the Bears to victory in Super Bowl XX XL years ago. Now, the Ben Johnson Effect faces a challenge that flummoxed even Ditka — the myth of "Bear Weather."

Bear Weather had been a romantic notion of Bears fans for years and picked up steam — at least visually — at the peak of the Ditka era when Wilber Marshall returned a fumble 52 yards for an exclamation-point touchdown as snowflakes fell in a 24-0 victory over the Rams in the NFC Championship Game in 1986 (in fact, the temperature was in the mid-30s for most of that game).

But the notion of Bear Weather took a hit when the Bears were upset by the Redskins 21-17 in their division-round postseason opener after the 1987 season in single-digit temperatures with negative-20 wind chills. And it was exposed as a myth a year later, when the Bears lost 28-3 to the 49ers with temperatures in the mid-teens and falling, with wind chills near zero for the 3 p.m. start — against a 49ers team with their West Coast offense and West Coast environment.

But here are the Bears with their best chance to make it to the Super Bowl since the 2010 season in the divisional round against the Rams, and Bear Weather is looming as a factor. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-teens at best for the 5:30 p.m. start, with wind chills near zero and possible snow. That's expected to be a Bears advantage against a Rams team that plays indoors at SoFi Stadium.

Matthew Stafford, who has played his home games indoors throughout his career with the Lions and Rams, has played in six sub-freezing games in his career, with a 95.5 passer rating (59.5% completions, 260.3 avg. yards, 10 touchdowns, one interception). In 2018 with the Lions, Stafford faced the Bears in Week 17 in 31-degree temperatures for a noon kickoff, with a wind chill of 20 and completed 28-of-39 passes for 298 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions in a 24-20 victory.

Sunday's weather figures to be significantly more challenging than that day. The Rams led the NFL with 268.1 passing yards per game and 46 passing touchdowns this season. But they also were seventh in rushing yards (126.6 per game) and sixth in yards per carry (4.6).

Former Bears director of college scouting Greg Gabriel is adamant that the weather will be an advantage for the Bears against Stafford and the Rams. "It will be by far the coldest weather Stafford has ever played in and he only has 1 win outside in cold weather," Gabriel said on Twitter this week.

He's right about that, but it remains to be seen if the severely cold weather will make a difference. Then again, the way the Ben Johnson Effect is running, you can't discount the possibility that Bear Weather goes from myth to difference-maker.

In 2023, the Chiefs struggled in the second half of the season (5-5 after a 6-1 start) and appeared vulnerable in the playoffs. They were headed for a risky playoff opener against the rival Bills at Arrowhead Stadium. But the Bills won at Miami in Week 18 to win the AFC East and push the Dolphins into the wild-card game against the Chiefs in frigid, sub-zero conditions at Arrowhead. The Dolphins were clearly impacted by the weather and the Chiefs won easily 26-7 to get into their postseason groove. They upset the Bills the following week at Highmark Stadium en route to winning the Super Bowl.

The Bears aren't the Chiefs. But Johnson has had that kind of effect on the Bears, where fate always seems to move its huge hands in his favor.

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