1st-and-10: The ultimate test of The Ben Johnson Effect

Ben Johnson opened his tenure as the Bears’ head coach with a shot at Matt LaFleur and now has to back it up with the Bears’ playoff lives on the line. The football gods hear everything.

Beating the Packers in the playoffs is the ultimate test of The Ben Johnson Effect. Johnson’s rejuvenating impact in his first season has been undeniable. The Bears were 11-5 in 2025 after going 3-14, 7-10 and 5-12 in three seasons under Matt Eberflus. Their offense improved from 28th to ninth in scoring. Caleb Williams’ sack total dropped from an NFL-high 68 to 24. The Bears won four games despite allowing 24 or more points this season after going 0-24 in that scenario in the Eberflus era. 

But facing the Packers with the season on the line is his “slay the dragon” moment that will define the season — and the offseason — for Bears fans, no matter how bright the future with Johnson in charge might appear. 

The Bears have memorably swung and missed with an opportunity to knock out the Packers. Even Lovie Smith, who made beating the Packers a priority in his opening press conference, and backed it up by going 6-2 against the Packers in his first four seasons, failed when it really mattered. 

In 2010, Lovie’s Bears had a chance to keep the Packers out of the playoffs in Week 17 and lost 10-3. They faced the Packers at Soldier Field in the NFC Championship Game that postseason — the football gods at work again — and the Packers won 21-14 on their way to winning the Super Bowl. 

And in 2013 under Marc Trestman, the 8-7 Bears faced the 7-7-1 Packers in Week 17 at Soldier Field in a virtual playoff game — the winner taking the NFC North, the loser out of the playoffs. And the Packers won 33-28 on Aaron Rodgers’ 48-yard touchdown pass to Randall Cobb with 38 seconds left in the fourth quarter.

Johnson might be the Bears’ best head coach since Mike Ditka, but he has a chance to show just how much better than the rest he is against the Packers on Saturday at Soldier Field. And all bets are off after a strange Week 18 game in which Johnson played his starters with an opportunity to clinch the No. 2 seed in the NFC, but with seemingly altered game plans on offense and defense that played into the Lions’ hands. It was almost like the Bears were in preseason mode, trying to not show their playoff hand. 

That only adds to the intrigue of a playoff matchup that doesn’t need any more intrigue. The Bears are vulnerable — like every team in the NFL playoffs this season. But the Bears and Williams also have responded to the most urgent moments, even when they haven’t finished. The expectation is that they will do that again Saturday. But against the Packers, they would be well-advised to take care of their own business and not leave anything up to chance. That rarely ends well for the Bears. 

2. Johnson has a history of keeping the Packers and LaFleur out of the playoffs, as the Lions’ offensive coordinator. In 2022, the 8-8 Lions were eliminated from playoff competition, but beat the Packers and Rodgers 20-16 at Lambeau Field in Week 18 to keep the Packers out as well. 

The Lions’ defense did most of the work that day, but Johnson’s offense drove 75 yards for a touchdown to take the lead, then made three first downs in the final 3:27 to prevent Rodgers from getting a final chance to win. 

3. Can the Bears win a playoff shootout? They might have to. Dennis Allen’s defenses with the Saints allowed 29, 26, 26 and 30 points in four playoff losses, including the Case Keenum-to-Stefon Diggs “Minnesota Miracle” against the Vikings in 2018. 

The Saints’ best defensive performance in the playoffs under Allen came against the Bears in 2021 — a 21-9 Saints victory at the Superdome, holding the Bears to 239 total yards.

The Bears scored their only touchdown on the final play, though Javon Wims dropped a 40-yard touchdown pass from Mitch Trubisky in the end zone in the first quarter off a trick play — a wildcat snap to David Montgomery, who handed off to Cordarrelle Patterson, who lateraled to Trubisky — a snapshot of just how much Matt Nagy’s luck had changed in two seasons as the Bears’ head coach. 

4. Johnson made the right move in playing his starters to try to clinch the No. 2 seed. The downside is that the Bears’ starters will be playing their 14th consecutive week in Saturday’s game. Their offensive core has played more offensive snaps since Week 6 than any other player in the NFL  — Williams (892 snaps), center Drew Dalman (892), right tackle Darnell Wright (892), left guard Joe Thuney (891) and right guard Jonah Jackson (872). 

The Lions, Eagles and Chargers were in a similar situation last season — playing 13 consecutive weeks after a Week 5 bye. But the Eagles rested their starters in Week 18, and won the Super Bowl. The Lions had a first-round playoff bye before losing to the Commanders 45-31 at home. The Chargers were the only team to play their starters for 14 consecutive weeks, and lost to the Texans 32-12 on the road in the wild-card round. 

5. The Packers are the third team since 1987 to enter the playoffs with a four-game losing streak. Both previous teams lost their playoff opener — the 2024 Steelers lost to the Ravens 28-14 on the road; the 1999 Lions lost to the Redskins 27-13 on the road. 

The Packers, though, coasted in Week 18, so their staters have only lost three consecutive games. Still, teams that have lost three of four games heading into the playoffs are 0-5 in road playoff openers over the last four seasons. 

6. For What It’s Worth Dept.: In 23 seasons of the current divisional format, the home team is 19-13 when divisional teams meet in the playoffs, but 9-0 over the last four seasons. 

7. Caleb Williams breaking Erik Kramer’s franchise record for single-season passing yards in the regular-season finale was certainly notable, but not quite a seismic achievement. Williams’ 3,942 yards ranks 265th on the NFL’s all-time list for single-season passing yards. No wonder they didn’t stop the game when Williams surpassed Kramer with a 25-yard touchdown pass to Jahdae Walker. 

And he did it in a 17-game season (Kramer played 16 games when he set the record with 3,838 yards in 1995). Williams’ 231.9 yards per game ranks 404th among quarterbacks who started 14 or more games in a season, per research via sports-reference.com

Still, Williams ranked seventh in the NFL in passing yards this season. That’s the highest finish for any Bears quarterback since Rudy Bukich was second in 1965 (to the 49ers’ John Brodie) with 2,641 passing yards (188.6 per game).

The last Bears quarterback to lead the NFL in passing yards was Johnny Lujack in 1949, with 2,658 yards (221.5 per game). Sid Luckman did it in 1943 (2,194 yards, 219.4 average), 1945 (1,727 yards, 172.7) and 1946 (1,826 yards, 166.0). 

8. Quick Hits: Tight end Colston Loveland (58 receptions, 713 yards, six touchdowns) is the first rookie to lead the Bears in receiving yards since Willie Gault in 1983 (40-836, eight touchdowns). … Loveland is the first rookie to lead the Bears in receptions and receiving yards since Mike Ditka in 1961 (56-1,076, 12 touchdowns). … Caleb Williams is the first Bears quarterback to start every game in back-to-back seasons since Bob Avellini in 1976-77 (both 14-game seasons). … With 34 consecutive starts, Williams is nine starts from breaking Avellini’s franchise record of 42 consecutive starts from 1976-78. … The offensive line of Ozzy Trapilo-Thuney-Dalman-Jackson-Wright had a streak of 369 snaps snapped when Trapilo missed the regular-season finale against the Lions with a calf injury. … The offensive line of Theo Benedet-Thuney-Dalman-Jackson-Wright had a streak of 352 snaps earlier this season. The Bears’ longest o-line streak in three years under Eberflus was 163. … Rookie running back Kyle Monangai has 48 carries for 192 yards (4.0 per carry, 38.4 per game) in his last five games. He had 79 carries for 405 yards and four touchdowns in his previous five games.

9. Josh McCown Ex-Bear of the Week: Bills quarterback Mitch Trubisky, playing for rested starter Josh Allen, completed 22 of 29 passes for 259 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions for a 142.1 passer rating in a 35-8 victory over the Jets. (Allen started and played one snap to keep his streak of 135 starts intact.)

The 142.1 passer rating is the third best of Trubisky’s nine-year NFL career. He had passer ratings of 154.6 (354 yards, six touchdowns) against the Buccaneers and 148.6 (355 yards, three touchdowns) against the Lions when he played for the Bears. 

10. Bear-ometer — 13-7: vs. Packers (W); vs. Eagles (W); vs. Rams (L).

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