1st-and-10: Setting the bar for Ben Johnson's debut season

Three consecutive winning seasons. That seems like a reasonable — and modest — bar for success for Ben Johnson as the Bears' head coach.

The Bears haven't done that since 1984-88 under Mike Ditka. And while it's not as common as you might think, it's not all that difficult. Of the 28 teams in the NFL in 1988, every one of them has had a string of three winning seasons, except the Bears. More than half the NFL (17 teams) has done it within the last five seasons.

Of the current teams in the NFL, only the expansion Browns (1999) and Panthers (2002) have not had three consecutive winning seasons — and the Panthers had three consecutive playoff seasons under Ron Rivera (2013-15, including the 7-8-1 2014 season). Bears fans would take that.

Johnson, in fact, already has that notch in his belt, or at least a hand in it. His offensive surge is the biggest reason why the Lions broke a 29-season drought with three consecutive winning seasons in 2022 (9-8), 2023 (12-5) and 2024 (15-2) under Dan Campbell. It was the first time the Lions have had three consecutive winning seasons since 1993-95 under Wayne Fontes.

But what about 2025? This is Johnson's first season, but the fourth season of the rebuild under general manager Ryan Poles. Johnson has more to work with here than with the Lions in 2022. The big difference on paper is that quarterback Caleb Williams is in his second NFL season. Jared Goff was entering his seventh NFL season in 2022 with the Lions.

That figures to give the Bears' offense some leeway in comparisons to his fast start as the offensive coordinator with the Lions in 2022. The Lions improved from 25th (19.1 ppg) to fifth (26.6 ppg) in scoring and from 22nd (211.6 ypg) to fourth (251.8 ypg) in Johnson's first season.

But while Goff played a key role in that improvement, the Lions' running game was the foundation. The Lions improved from 19th in rushing (110.9 ypg) to 11th (128.2 ypg) in 2022; and from 24th in rushing touchdowns (12) to third (24) with Jamaal Williams and D'Andre Swift in the backfield. Williams, in fact, scored more rushing touchdowns in the first year in Johnson's offense in 2022 (17) than he had in his first five seasons in the NFL combined (13).

So while Williams learns on the fly in 2025, the focus will be on the Bears' offensive line that Poles rebuilt with Johnson's offense in mind and running backs Swift, Roschon Johnson and rookie Kyle Monangai to give the offense a solid foundation for Williams and the passing offense to build on as the season progresses. On paper, that's a pretty apples-to-apples comparison that could provide an early indication of Johnson's ability to replicate his success with the Lions.

As for season landmarks, the bar also is set reasonably and modestly:

• A winning record.

• A .500 or better record in the NFC North.

• Beating a playoff team that's at full strength.

• A winning record in one-score games.

• Beating a quality opponent on the road.

• Williams' improving his yards per attempt to above the league average (He was 33rd last year at 6.3; Goff improved from 6.6 yards per attempt to 7.6 in his first season in Johnson's offense in 2022).

• A better record in the second half of the season than the first half (the Lions started 1-7, then went 7-2 to finish 9-8 in 2022).

Even with those landmarks, optimism for sustained success under Johnson will be an eye-test/feel kind of thing. The Bears made the Super Bowl in 2006, but Rex Grossman's inconsistency loomed as a red flag; The Bears went 12-4 in Matt Nagy's first season and Mitch Trubisky made the Pro Bowl as an alternate in 2018, but most of the offensive output was done against poor defenses.

The demise of both of those teams, under Lovie Smith and Nagy, are big reasons why the Bears have been unable to sustain any success since the Ditka era. If the arrow isn't pointing way up for Williams heading into 2026, all bets are off.

2. Johnson announced that — as expected — veteran Braxton Jones will start at left tackle against the Vikings on Monday night. But it wasn't a ringing endorsement.

"He knows what he's doing," Johnson said when asked what Jones showed to win the job. "Is it perfect every play? No, it's not. But we did see the execution go up over the course of the last few weeks. So there is a trust level in him knowing what to do. We think that he's gonna continue to ascend the more reps that he gets."

Suffice to say that Jones is on a short leash. Johnson likely won't hesitate to make a change if Jones isn't effective. Theo Benedet, who was on the practice squad as a rookie last season and has not played in an NFL game, is officially the second-team left tackle.

Playing next to All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney figures to give Jones a boost — and open some options for Johnson is giving Jones help on that side. Then again, Playing next to Thuney couldn't prevent rookie second-round draft pick Kingsley Suamataia or 2023 third-round pick Wanya Morris from losing the left tackle job last year with the Chiefs. Then yet again, Suamataia and Morris had never started before. Jones has started 40 games at left tackle of the last three seasons. So with his experience, playing next to Thuney could be a bigger boost.

The bottom line, if the rest of the line is as good as the Bears expect it to be, they should be able to thrive with Jones at left tackle.

3. Rookie Ozzy Trapilo, the second-round draft pick whom the Bears hoped would win the left tackle spot, is the second-team right tackle behind Wright. The Bears didn't draft Trapilo 56th overall to back up Wright for the next 10 years, so something's going to have to give eventually. Wright could move to left tackle and open a spot for Trapilo at some point.

Maybe even this year. When Johnson was the Lions' tight end coach in 2021, rookie Penei Sewell moved from left tackle to right tackle in Week 10 (the week after offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn was demoted and Johnson became the de facto passing game coordinator) and has been there ever since.

The difference is that Sewell had played right tackle during training camp and was playing left tackle only because of an injury to starter Taylor Decker. Wright is a better right tackle, but players of his caliber (Wright was the 10th overall pick of the 2023 draft) can often make the transition. Sewell for instance, was a left tackle at Oregon, but has been an All-Pro player at right tackle with the Lions.

4. Ben Johnson didn't rule out cornerback Jaylon Johnson playing against the Vikings after missing all of training camp and the preseason with a groin injury, but it's unlikely Jaylon Johnson will play. It's just not worth the risk. That's a tough injury, especially for someone who hasn't played a single Jan. 5 against the Packers.

In 2018, rookie linebacker Roquan Smith missed 29 days of training camp and did not play in the preseason and played only eight snaps in the regular-season opener against the Packers. Johnson hasn't even stepped on the practice field. Players who open camp in July have to practice three days without contact and two days in shells before they can participate in full pads. It can be done, but a rookie head coach isn't likely to take that kind of risk.

5. For What Its Worth Dept.: Johnson didn't say he got the same kick out of beating Kevin O'Connell and Brian Flores as he did against Packers coach Matt LaFleur, but he had even better success.

Johnson and Dan Campbell's Lions were 4-0 against the Vikings in Flores' first two seasons as defensive coordinator, scoring 30, 30, 31 and 31 points in the four games. Against Vikings run defenses that ranked eighth in 2023 and second in 2024, the Lions averaged 133.8 rushing yards and 4.6 yards per carry, with 10 touchdowns in four games. The Vikings allowed just 16 rushing touchdowns in 30 games against the rest of the NFL in those two seasons.

6. Fantasy Island — Based on that history, running back D'Andre Swift might be a pick to click against the Vikings. Swift might get a heavier load than normal as the only Bears running back who stayed healthy in the preseason. And, for what its worth, he had 15 carries for 144 yards and a seven-yard touchdown against the Eagles in Johnson's debut as the Lions offensive coordinator in 2022.

7. Captaincy in the NFL is more of an honorary title, but the Bears' captains this season are an indication of just how much change there has been since last season. Five of the eight captains the Bears elected last season did not repeat as captains this season: wide receiver DJ Moore, tight end Cole Kmet, linebackers T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds and cornerback Jaylon Johnson.

Quarterback Caleb Williams and safety Kevin Byard, captains in 2024, were among the five captains the Bears elected this season. Newcomers Thuney and defensive tackle Grady Jarrett and kicker Cairo Santos are the other three captains.

8. Odds and Ends — On the eve of opening week in the NFL, the Bears are 30-1 (+3000) to win the Super Bowl, according to ESPN Bet. (The Eagles and Ravens are co-favorites at 13-2 (+650). The Packers dropped from 20-1 to 14-1 after acquiring pass rusher Micah Parsons from the Cowboys last week.

The Bears' win total is 8.5 (+140) and are +170 to make the playoffs. The Vikings are two-point favorites in Monday night's opener. The Bears have lost seven of their last eight games against the Vikings (3-5 against the spread) — winning 12-10 at U.S. Bank Stadium on Santos' 30-yard field goal (after Justin Fields' clutch 36-yard pass to a wide-open DJ Moore on third-and-10 from the Vikings 49) on Monday Night Football in 2023.

9. Ex-Bears Player of the Week: Wide receiver Tyler Scott, waived by the Bears after being caught in a logjam at wide receiver with the emergence of undrafted rookie Jahde Walker, signed with the Colts' practice squad. A fourth-round draft pick out of Cincinnati in 2023, Scott had 17 receptions for 168 yards in 17 games (one start) as a rookie. But he had just one catch for five yards in a much more limited role in 11 games last season.

10. Bear-ometer — 8-9: vs. Vikings (L); at Lions (L); vs. Cowboys (W); at Raiders (W); at Commanders (L); vs. Saints (W); at Ravens (L); at Bengals (W); vs. Giants (W); at Vikings (L); vs. Steelers (W); at Eagles (L); at Packers (L); vs. Browns (W); vs. Packers (L); at 49ers (L); vs. Lions (W).

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