1st-and-10: Ben Johnson's Bears aren't just special, they're sustainable

This week’s version of The Ben Johnson Effect: A year after the Bears were burned by the fickle finger of football fate with a Hail Mary loss to the Commanders that sent their season careening into unprecedented ignominy, they are just about even with the football gods. 

The Bears earned their 22-16 overtime victory against the Packers on Sunday by making plays. But the one play that set it up was a mathematical fluke. Onside kicks had worked just five times in 48 tries (10.4%) before Josh Blackwell recovered a muff by hands-team member Romeo Doubs with 1:59 left in the fourth quarter. That was the break the Bears needed — their only chance — and they got it. 

It’s been that kind of season under Johnson. The upset of the Packers was the Bears’ sixth fourth-quarterback comeback victory, and each one has been sparked by a play that beat the odds: 

• Blackwell’s block of Daniel Carlson’s 54-yard field goal as time expired to clinch a 25-24 victory over the Raiders. Only 2% of field goal attempts have been blocked this season. 

• Jayden Daniels unforced error with 3:07 to play in the fourth quarter — a fumbled handoff to running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt that was recovered by Nahshon Wright — led to Jake Moody’s 38-yard field goal as time expired to give the Bears a 25-24 victory over the Commanders. It was Daniels’ first botched exchange (center/quarterback or quarterback/running back) in 1,325 snaps in the NFL. 

• Bengals defensive backs Jordan Battle and Geno Stone missing what should have been a sure combo tackle of Colston Loveland to spring the rookie for a 58-yard touchdown that gave the Bears a 47-42 victory over the Bengals. (The Bears would have been in field goal range had Battle and Stone made the tackle, but the egregious miss saved the Bears’ the suspense.)

• Jaxson Dart fumbling after a seven-yard gain to the Bears 21, with Wright recovering. The Giants had momentum with a 17-7 lead and were driving for a touchdown that would have given them a 17-point lead with less than five minutes left in the third quarter. Instead, Dart suffered a concussion and played just one more snap and the Bears parlayed Jamie Gillan’s 26-yard punt — his shortest punt of the season — into a touchdown drive that gave them a 24-20 victory.

• Devin Duvernay’s 56-yard kickoff return to the Vikings 40-yard line with 42 seconds left in the fourth quarter led to Cairo Santos’ 48-yard field goal for an improbable 19-17 victory at U.S. Bank Stadium. Only three of Duvernay’s previous 27 returns had gone longer than 29 yards prior to that clutch return. 

It’s a series of fortuitous plays and fast finishes that has the Bears rightfully claiming “this team is special” and skeptics pegging them for a fall — due to stub their toe when the ball doesn’t bounce their way. 

Therein lies the challenge for Ben Johnson and the Bears the rest of this season and into 2026 — to prove that this team is not just “special,” but sustainable. 

The 2001 Bears were special. The 2006 Bears were special. And the 2018 Bears were special. But those exciting seasons were one-offs. This team, which has persevered through injuries and also benefitted from good fortune, has key elements of staying power: a head coach who can win the chess match; a quarterback who is at his best in tough situations; and an upgraded offensive line that — knock on wood — has stayed intact. 

The Bears aren’t foolproof. And this season has been a bit of a high-wire act. But they’re working with a net this time, with a chance to be better even if they fall. It's sometimes better to be lucky than good. But it's always better to be lucky and good. 

2. No matter what happens this season, or in the future, the Bears’ victory over the Packers will go down as arguably the greatest regular-season win in Bears history — rivaling Youtube highlights of the Miracle in the Desert in 2006 and the 44-0 victory over the Cowboys in 1985. 

3. Amid all the excitement over the Bears’ miraculous victory and their potential Super Bowl hopes, both belief and skepticism about Caleb Williams are legitimate. 

Williams was an elite-level quarterback in the final two drives to turn a subpar performance into a convincing one. But if not for Blackwell’s recovery of the onside kick, he likely would have finished with a 70.0 passer rating (12 for 24, 151 yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions) and another middling performance against the Bears’ biggest rival. Given the opportunity, he finished with a flourish and a 98.9 passer rating. 

Ben Johnson has been as good or better than advertised — pretty impressive given the build-up — and has accomplished virtually every goal already this season, with one notable exception: Williams completing 70% of his passes. And at 57.8% he’s not even close. For Johnson to be that far off a goal indicates it might not be an easy fix. The Bears obviously can win with — and because of — Williams even with is inaccuracy, but ultimately (like in the postseason) he’ll need to fix that flaw to reach the highest tier of NFL quarterbacks. 

4. Williams and the Patriots’ Drake Maye are both 11-4 but with contrasting accuracy — Maye leads the NFL with 70.9% completions; Williams is 32nd at 57.8%. If they meet in the Super Bowl, it would be the largest differential in accuracy since the Broncos’ John Elway (53.6%) vs. the 49ers’ Joe Montana (70.2%) in Super Bowl XXIV in 1990.

That’s an interesting comp — Elway and Montana are Hall of Fame quarterbacks who despite the disparity in accuracy had a knack for coming through in the clutch. 

5. Johnson’s friendship with Dan Campbell and rivalry with Matt LaFleur could be an interesting backdrop to the Bears’ Week 18 game against the Lions at Soldier Field.

If the Packers lose their final two games against the Ravens and Vikings and the Lions beat the Vikings on Sunday, the Packers’ playoff fate could be in Johnson’s hands. If the Bears beat the Lions, the Packers make the playoffs; if the Bears lose to the Lions, the Lions make the playoffs. 

The Bears could be locked into the No. 2 seed in the NFC, which would give Johnson the option of resting some starters against the Lions. Adding more intrigue to that scenario: the Bears would face the survivor in a wild-card game the following weekend at Soldier Field. 

6. Continuity is King Dept.: The Bears’ offensive line played every snap for the 10th time in 15 games this season. Last year the starting offensive line played every snap in seven of 17 games, losing 335 snaps to in-game injuries. This year the Bears have lost just 32 snaps to in-game injuries. 

The starting combination of Ozzy Trapilo, Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman, Jonah Jackson and Darnell Wright has a streak of 309 consecutive meaningful snaps (Thuney sat out a last-play keel-down against the Browns). They’re approaching the season-high 352 consecutive snaps with Theo Benedet at left tackle in Weeks 5-10. The Bears longest streak of offensive-line snaps during the Matt Eberflus era was 163. 

7. Regardless of what the protocol is for announcing the result of a penalized play, there has to be a way to avoid teasing Lions fans with “The ruling on the field is a touchdown. However …” as referee Carl Cheffers did on the final play of the Lions-Steelers game Sunday at Ford Field. 

“The ruling is offensive pass interference on Detroit No. 14, which negates the touchdown” would have spared long-tormented Lions fans the agony of thinking the Lions had won a critical game when they in fact had lost. It’s just common sense. 

8. It’s actually a good thing that Pro Bowl selections at cornerback aren’t just based on interceptions — three of the four NFC cornerbacks have two or fewer (Quinyon Mitchell has none, Cooper DeJean two and Devon Witherspoon one). 

But Bears cornerback Nahshon Wright has more than numbers. Each of the nine takeaways he’s been involved in this season has been impactful if not game-turning — from the pick-6 against the Vikings at Soldier Field in the opener to the highlight-reel interceptions against the Steelers and Vikings to the fumble recoveries against the Commanders, Giants and Eagles (famously beating the Tush Push) and a red-zone forced fumble against the Packers on Saturday. 

Only one of Wright's takeaways has been remotely gratuitous — the final-play interception that clinched the 47-42 victory over the Bengals, when a pass break-up also would have done the job.

9. Josh McCown Ex-Bear of the Week: Seahawks tight end Eric Saubert — the former Bear, Falcon, Jaguar, Bronco, Cowboy, Texan and 49er from Hoffman Estates — caught a game-winning two-point conversion in overtime in a 38-37 victory over the Rams. 

10. Bear-ometer — 12-5: at 49ers (L); vs. Lions (W).

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